Intensified Arabian Sea tropical storms

Bin Wang, Shibin Xu and Liguang Wu
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Bin Wang: University of Hawaii at Manoa
Shibin Xu: University of Hawaii at Manoa
Liguang Wu: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

Nature, 2012, vol. 489, issue 7416, E1-E2

Abstract: Abstract Arising from A. T. Evan, J. P. Kossin, C. E. Chung & V. Ramanathan Nature 479, 94–97 (2011)10.1038/nature10552 Tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea in the pre-monsoon season (May–June) have intensified since 1997 (ref. 1, Fig. 1a) owing to significant reductions in storm-ambient vertical wind shear (VWS) in the troposphere; these reductions have decreased on average by about 3 m s−1 from the pre-1997 epoch (1979–1997) to the recent epoch (1998–2010)1. The authors attribute the reduction of pre-monsoon VWS to the dimming effects of increased anthropogenic black carbon and sulphate emissions1. However, observations show no sign of a significant decreasing trend in VWS (Fig. 1b), in contrast to the simulated, aerosol-induced decreasing trend in ref. 1. We further show that the decrease of VWS in the recent epoch is caused by substantially advanced (by 15 days) tropical-cyclone occurrences, caused by the early onset of the Asian summer monsoon. There is a Reply to this Brief Communication Arising by Evan, A. T. et al. Nature 489, doi:10.1038/nature11471 (2012) .

Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1038/nature11470

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