The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

Camilo Mora (), Abby G. Frazier, Ryan J. Longman, Rachel S. Dacks, Maya M. Walton, Eric J. Tong, Joseph J. Sanchez, Lauren R. Kaiser, Yuko O. Stender, James M. Anderson, Christine M. Ambrosino, Iria Fernandez-Silva, Louise M. Giuseffi and Thomas W. Giambelluca
Additional contact information
Camilo Mora: University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
Abby G. Frazier: University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
Ryan J. Longman: University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
Rachel S. Dacks: University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
Maya M. Walton: University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
Eric J. Tong: Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
Joseph J. Sanchez: University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
Lauren R. Kaiser: University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
Yuko O. Stender: University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
James M. Anderson: University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
Christine M. Ambrosino: University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
Iria Fernandez-Silva: Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
Louise M. Giuseffi: University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
Thomas W. Giambelluca: University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa

Nature, 2013, vol. 502, issue 7470, 183-187

Abstract: Abstract Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1038/nature12540

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