Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity

Michael T. Burrows (), David S. Schoeman, Anthony J. Richardson, Jorge García Molinos, Ary Hoffmann, Lauren B. Buckley, Pippa J. Moore, Christopher J. Brown, John F. Bruno, Carlos M. Duarte, Benjamin S. Halpern, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Carrie V. Kappel, Wolfgang Kiessling, Mary I. O’Connor, John M. Pandolfi, Camille Parmesan, William J. Sydeman, Simon Ferrier, Kristen J. Williams and Elvira S. Poloczanska
Additional contact information
Michael T. Burrows: Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, Argyll, PA37 1QA, Scotland, UK
David S. Schoeman: School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, Queensland QLD 4558, Australia
Anthony J. Richardson: Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Ecosciences Precinct, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia
Jorge García Molinos: Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, Argyll, PA37 1QA, Scotland, UK
Ary Hoffmann: University of Melbourne, 30 Flemington Road, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia
Lauren B. Buckley: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Pippa J. Moore: Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth SY23 3DA, UK
Christopher J. Brown: The Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia
John F. Bruno: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Carlos M. Duarte: The UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley 6009, Australia
Benjamin S. Halpern: Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg: The Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia
Carrie V. Kappel: Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California
Wolfgang Kiessling: GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Paläoumwelt, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Loewenichstrasse 28, 91054 Erlangen, Germany
Mary I. O’Connor: University of British Columbia, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, Canada
John M. Pandolfi: School of Biological Sciences, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia
Camille Parmesan: Integrative Biology, University of Texas
William J. Sydeman: Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, 101 H Street, Suite Q, Petaluma, California 94952, USA
Simon Ferrier: Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
Kristen J. Williams: Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
Elvira S. Poloczanska: Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Ecosciences Precinct, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia

Nature, 2014, vol. 507, issue 7493, 492-495

Abstract: Global maps constructed using climate-change velocities to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches between 1960 and 2100 show past and future shifts in ecological climate niches; properties of these trajectories are used to infer changes in species distributions, and thus identify areas that will act as climate sources and sinks, and geographical barriers to species migrations.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/nature12976

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