Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates

Ed Hawkins (), Bruce Anderson, Noah Diffenbaugh, Irina Mahlstein, Richard Betts, Gabi Hegerl, Manoj Joshi, Reto Knutti, Doug McNeall, Susan Solomon, Rowan Sutton, Jozef Syktus and Gabriel Vecchi
Additional contact information
Ed Hawkins: National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK
Bruce Anderson: Boston University
Noah Diffenbaugh: School of Earth Sciences and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University
Irina Mahlstein: Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Zurich CH-8058, Switzerland
Richard Betts: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB. UK
Gabi Hegerl: School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, UK
Manoj Joshi: Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Reto Knutti: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Doug McNeall: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB. UK
Susan Solomon: Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Rowan Sutton: National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK
Jozef Syktus: Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts, and University of Queensland
Gabriel Vecchi: Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory

Nature, 2014, vol. 511, issue 7507, E3-E5

Abstract: Abstract Arising from C. Mora et al. Nature 502, 183–187 (2013) The question of when the signal of climate change will emerge from the background noise of climate variability—the ‘time of emergence’—is potentially important for adaptation planning. Mora et al.1 presented precise projections of the time of emergence of unprecedented regional climates. However, their methodology produces artificially early dates at which specific regions will permanently experience unprecedented climates and artificially low uncertainty in those dates everywhere. This overconfidence could impair the effectiveness of climate risk management decisions2. There is a Reply to this Brief Communication Arising by Mora, C. et al. Nature 511, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature13524 (2014).

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/nature13523

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