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Australia is 'free to choose' economic growth and falling environmental pressures

Steve Hatfield-Dodds, Heinz Schandl, Philip Adams (), Timothy Baynes, Thomas S. Brinsmead, Brett A. Bryan, Francis H. S. Chiew, Paul W. Graham, Mike Grundy, Tom Harwood, Rebecca McCallum, Rod McCrea, Lisa E. McKellar, David Newth, Martin Nolan, Ian Prosser and Alex Wonhas
Additional contact information
Steve Hatfield-Dodds: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories
Heinz Schandl: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories
Thomas S. Brinsmead: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories
Brett A. Bryan: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories
Francis H. S. Chiew: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories
Paul W. Graham: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories
Mike Grundy: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories
Tom Harwood: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories
Rebecca McCallum: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories
Rod McCrea: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories
Lisa E. McKellar: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories
David Newth: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories
Martin Nolan: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories
Ian Prosser: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories
Alex Wonhas: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories

Nature, 2016, vol. 534, issue 7607, S1-S2

Abstract: Abstract Over two centuries of economic growth have put undeniable pressure on the ecological systems that underpin human well-being. While it is agreed that these pressures are increasing, views divide on how they may be alleviated. Some suggest technological advances will automatically keep us from transgressing key environmental thresholds; others that policy reform can reconcile economic and ecological goals; while a third school argues that only a fundamental shift in societal values can keep human demands within the Earth's ecological limits. Here we use novel integrated analysis of the energy–water–food nexus, rural land use (including biodiversity), material flows and climate change to explore whether mounting ecological pressures in Australia can be reversed, while the population grows and living standards improve. We show that, in the right circumstances, economic and environmental outcomes can be decoupled. Although economic growth is strong across all scenarios, environmental performance varies widely: pressures are projected to more than double, stabilize or fall markedly by 2050. However, we find no evidence that decoupling will occur automatically. Nor do we find that a shift in societal values is required. Rather, extensions of current policies that mobilize technology and incentivize reduced pressure account for the majority of differences in environmental performance. Our results show that Australia can make great progress towards sustainable prosperity, if it chooses to do so.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/nature19414

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