Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

Stephen J. Thackeray (), Peter A. Henrys, Deborah Hemming, James R. Bell, Marc S. Botham, Sarah Burthe, Pierre Helaouet, David G. Johns, Ian D. Jones, David I. Leech, Eleanor B. Mackay, Dario Massimino, Sian Atkinson, Philip J. Bacon, Tom M. Brereton, Laurence Carvalho, Tim H. Clutton-Brock, Callan Duck, Martin Edwards, J. Malcolm Elliott, Stephen J. G. Hall, Richard Harrington, James W. Pearce-Higgins, Toke T. Høye, Loeske E. B. Kruuk, Josephine M. Pemberton, Tim H. Sparks, Paul M. Thompson, Ian White, Ian J. Winfield and Sarah Wanless
Additional contact information
Stephen J. Thackeray: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre
Peter A. Henrys: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre
Deborah Hemming: Met Office
James R. Bell: Rothamsted Research, West Common
Marc S. Botham: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Sarah Burthe: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Pierre Helaouet: The Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory
David G. Johns: The Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory
Ian D. Jones: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre
David I. Leech: British Trust for Ornithology
Eleanor B. Mackay: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre
Dario Massimino: British Trust for Ornithology
Sian Atkinson: The Woodland Trust
Philip J. Bacon: Futtie Park
Tom M. Brereton: Butterfly Conservation
Laurence Carvalho: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Tim H. Clutton-Brock: University of Cambridge
Callan Duck: Sea Mammal Research Unit, Scottish Oceans Institute
Martin Edwards: The Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory
J. Malcolm Elliott: The Freshwater Biological Association
Stephen J. G. Hall: University of Lincoln
Richard Harrington: Rothamsted Research, West Common
James W. Pearce-Higgins: British Trust for Ornithology
Toke T. Høye: Aarhus Institute of Advanced Studies, Aarhus University
Loeske E. B. Kruuk: Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh
Josephine M. Pemberton: Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh
Tim H. Sparks: Faculty of Engineering and Computing, Coventry University
Paul M. Thompson: University of Aberdeen
Ian White: People’s Trust for Endangered Species
Ian J. Winfield: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre
Sarah Wanless: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

Nature, 2016, vol. 535, issue 7611, 241-245

Abstract: Abstract Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5–2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1–14.8 days earlier on average).

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/nature18608

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