Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’

Iselin Medhaug (), Martin B. Stolpe, Erich M. Fischer and Reto Knutti
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Iselin Medhaug: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich
Martin B. Stolpe: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich
Erich M. Fischer: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich
Reto Knutti: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich

Nature, 2017, vol. 545, issue 7652, 41-47

Abstract: Abstract Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the ‘global warming hiatus’, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of ‘hiatus’ and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/nature22315

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