The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming

Sonia I. Seneviratne (), Joeri Rogelj, Roland Séférian, Richard Wartenburger, Myles R. Allen, Michelle Cain, Richard J. Millar, Kristie L. Ebi, Neville Ellis, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Antony J. Payne, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Petra Tschakert and Rachel F. Warren
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Sonia I. Seneviratne: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
Joeri Rogelj: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
Roland Séférian: Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France/CNRS
Richard Wartenburger: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
Myles R. Allen: Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford
Michelle Cain: Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford
Richard J. Millar: Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford
Kristie L. Ebi: University of Washington
Neville Ellis: School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg: Global Change Institute, University of Queensland
Antony J. Payne: University of Bristol
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner: Climate Analytics
Petra Tschakert: School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia
Rachel F. Warren: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia

Nature, 2018, vol. 558, issue 7708, 41-49

Abstract: Abstract The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4

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