Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level

Chris T. Perry (), Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip, Nicholas A. J. Graham, Peter J. Mumby, Shaun K. Wilson, Paul S. Kench, Derek P. Manzello, Kyle M. Morgan, Aimee B. A. Slangen, Damian P. Thomson, Fraser Januchowski-Hartley, Scott G. Smithers, Robert S. Steneck, Renee Carlton, Evan N. Edinger, Ian C. Enochs, Nuria Estrada-Saldívar, Michael D. E. Haywood, Graham Kolodziej, Gary N. Murphy, Esmeralda Pérez-Cervantes, Adam Suchley, Lauren Valentino, Robert Boenish, Margaret Wilson and Chancey Macdonald
Additional contact information
Chris T. Perry: University of Exeter
Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Nicholas A. J. Graham: Lancaster University
Peter J. Mumby: University of Queensland
Shaun K. Wilson: Conservation and Attractions, Kensington
Paul S. Kench: The University of Auckland
Derek P. Manzello: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA
Kyle M. Morgan: Nanyang Technological University
Aimee B. A. Slangen: Utrecht University
Damian P. Thomson: University of Western Australia
Fraser Januchowski-Hartley: 2UMR 248 MARBEC/UMR250 ENTROPIE, UM2-CNRS-IRD-IFREMER-UM1, Université Montpellier 2
Scott G. Smithers: James Cook University
Robert S. Steneck: University of Maine
Renee Carlton: Khaled bin Sultan Living Oceans Foundation
Evan N. Edinger: Memorial University
Ian C. Enochs: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA
Nuria Estrada-Saldívar: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Michael D. E. Haywood: Queensland, Bioscience Precinct
Graham Kolodziej: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA
Gary N. Murphy: University of Exeter
Esmeralda Pérez-Cervantes: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Adam Suchley: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Lauren Valentino: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA
Robert Boenish: University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences
Margaret Wilson: University of California, Santa Barbara
Chancey Macdonald: James Cook University

Nature, 2018, vol. 558, issue 7710, 396-400

Abstract: Abstract Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0194-z

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