Widespread but heterogeneous responses of Andean forests to climate change

Belén Fadrique, Selene Báez, Álvaro Duque, Agustina Malizia, Cecilia Blundo, Julieta Carilla, Oriana Osinaga-Acosta, Lucio Malizia, Miles Silman, William Farfán-Ríos, Yadvinder Malhi, Kenneth R. Young, Francisco Cuesta C., Jurgen Homeier, Manuel Peralvo, Esteban Pinto, Oswaldo Jadan, Nikolay Aguirre, Zhofre Aguirre and Kenneth J. Feeley ()
Additional contact information
Belén Fadrique: University of Miami
Selene Báez: Escuela Politécnica Nacional
Álvaro Duque: Universidad Nacional de Colombia–Sede Medellín
Agustina Malizia: Universidad Nacional de Tucumán (UNT) & Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET)
Cecilia Blundo: Universidad Nacional de Tucumán (UNT) & Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET)
Julieta Carilla: Universidad Nacional de Tucumán (UNT) & Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET)
Oriana Osinaga-Acosta: Universidad Nacional de Tucumán (UNT) & Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET)
Lucio Malizia: Universidad Nacional de Jujuy
Miles Silman: Wake Forest University
William Farfán-Ríos: Wake Forest University
Yadvinder Malhi: University of Oxford
Kenneth R. Young: University of Texas at Austin
Francisco Cuesta C.: Consortium for the Sustainable Development of the Andean Ecoregion (CONDESAN)
Jurgen Homeier: University of Göttingen
Manuel Peralvo: Consortium for the Sustainable Development of the Andean Ecoregion (CONDESAN)
Esteban Pinto: Consortium for the Sustainable Development of the Andean Ecoregion (CONDESAN)
Oswaldo Jadan: Universidad de Cuenca, Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias
Nikolay Aguirre: Universidad Nacional de Loja
Zhofre Aguirre: Universidad Nacional de Loja
Kenneth J. Feeley: University of Miami

Nature, 2018, vol. 564, issue 7735, 207-212

Abstract: Abstract Global warming is forcing many species to shift their distributions upward, causing consequent changes in the compositions of species that occur at specific locations. This prediction remains largely untested for tropical trees. Here we show, using a database of nearly 200 Andean forest plot inventories spread across more than 33.5° latitude (from 26.8° S to 7.1° N) and 3,000-m elevation (from 360 to 3,360 m above sea level), that tropical and subtropical tree communities are experiencing directional shifts in composition towards having greater relative abundances of species from lower, warmer elevations. Although this phenomenon of ‘thermophilization’ is widespread throughout the Andes, the rates of compositional change are not uniform across elevations. The observed heterogeneity in thermophilization rates is probably because of different warming rates and/or the presence of specialized tree communities at ecotones (that is, at the transitions between distinct habitats, such as at the timberline or at the base of the cloud forest). Understanding the factors that determine the directions and rates of compositional changes will enable us to better predict, and potentially mitigate, the effects of climate change on tropical forests.

Keywords: Andean Forests; Greater Relative Abundance; Thermal Optimum; Multiple Census; Interval Censoring (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0715-9

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