Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017

Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Michael A. Cork, Amber Sligar, Krista M. Steuben, Kate F. Wilson, Naomi R. Provost, Benjamin K. Mayala, John D. VanderHeide, Michael L. Collison, Jason B. Hall, Molly H. Biehl, Austin Carter, Tahvi Frank, Dirk Douwes-Schultz, Roy Burstein, Daniel C. Casey, Aniruddha Deshpande, Lucas Earl, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Tamer H. Farag, Nathaniel J. Henry, Damaris Kinyoki, Laurie B. Marczak, Molly R. Nixon, Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman, David Pigott, Robert C. Reiner, Jennifer M. Ross, Lauren E. Schaeffer, David L. Smith, Nicole Davis Weaver, Kirsten E. Wiens, Jeffrey W. Eaton, Jessica E. Justman, Alex Opio, Benn Sartorius, Frank Tanser, Njeri Wabiri, Peter Piot, Christopher J. L. Murray and Simon I. Hay ()
Additional contact information
Laura Dwyer-Lindgren: University of Washington
Michael A. Cork: University of Washington
Amber Sligar: University of Washington
Krista M. Steuben: University of Washington
Kate F. Wilson: University of Washington
Naomi R. Provost: University of Washington
Benjamin K. Mayala: DHS program, ICF International
John D. VanderHeide: University of Washington
Michael L. Collison: University of Washington
Jason B. Hall: University of Washington
Molly H. Biehl: University of Washington
Austin Carter: University of Washington
Tahvi Frank: University of Washington
Dirk Douwes-Schultz: University of Washington
Roy Burstein: University of Washington
Daniel C. Casey: University of Washington
Aniruddha Deshpande: University of Washington
Lucas Earl: University of Washington
Charbel El Bcheraoui: University of Washington
Tamer H. Farag: University of Washington
Nathaniel J. Henry: University of Washington
Damaris Kinyoki: University of Washington
Laurie B. Marczak: University of Washington
Molly R. Nixon: University of Washington
Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman: University of Washington
David Pigott: University of Washington
Robert C. Reiner: University of Washington
Jennifer M. Ross: University of Washington
Lauren E. Schaeffer: University of Washington
David L. Smith: University of Washington
Nicole Davis Weaver: University of Washington
Kirsten E. Wiens: University of Washington
Jeffrey W. Eaton: University of Washington
Jessica E. Justman: Columbia University
Alex Opio: Medireal Investment Uganda
Benn Sartorius: University of KwaZulu-Natal
Frank Tanser: University of KwaZulu-Natal
Njeri Wabiri: Human Sciences Research Council
Peter Piot: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Christopher J. L. Murray: University of Washington
Simon I. Hay: University of Washington

Nature, 2019, vol. 570, issue 7760, 189-193

Abstract: Abstract HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15–49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1200-9

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