Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict

Katharine J. Mach (), Caroline M. Kraan, W. Neil Adger, Halvard Buhaug, Marshall Burke, James D. Fearon, Christopher B. Field, Cullen S. Hendrix, Jean-François Maystadt, John O’Loughlin, Philip Roessler, Jürgen Scheffran, Kenneth A. Schultz and Nina Uexkull
Additional contact information
Katharine J. Mach: Stanford University
Caroline M. Kraan: Stanford University
W. Neil Adger: University of Exeter
Halvard Buhaug: Peace Research Institute Oslo
Marshall Burke: Stanford University
James D. Fearon: Stanford University
Christopher B. Field: Stanford University
Cullen S. Hendrix: University of Denver
John O’Loughlin: University of Colorado Boulder
Philip Roessler: William & Mary
Jürgen Scheffran: University of Hamburg
Kenneth A. Schultz: Stanford University
Nina Uexkull: Peace Research Institute Oslo

Nature, 2019, vol. 571, issue 7764, 193-197

Abstract: Abstract Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6

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