Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa

Mark O. Cuthbert (), Richard G. Taylor, Guillaume Favreau, Martin C. Todd, Mohammad Shamsudduha, Karen G. Villholth, Alan M. MacDonald, Bridget R. Scanlon, D. O. Valerie Kotchoni, Jean-Michel Vouillamoz, Fabrice M. A. Lawson, Philippe Armand Adjomayi, Japhet Kashaigili, David Seddon, James P. R. Sorensen, Girma Yimer Ebrahim, Michael Owor, Philip M. Nyenje, Yahaya Nazoumou, Ibrahim Goni, Boukari Issoufou Ousmane, Tenant Sibanda, Matthew J. Ascott, David M. J. Macdonald, William Agyekum, Youssouf Koussoubé, Heike Wanke, Hyungjun Kim, Yoshihide Wada, Min-Hui Lo, Taikan Oki and Neno Kukuric
Additional contact information
Mark O. Cuthbert: University College London
Richard G. Taylor: University College London
Guillaume Favreau: Université Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, Grenoble INP, IGE
Martin C. Todd: University of Sussex
Mohammad Shamsudduha: University College London
Karen G. Villholth: International Water Management Institute
Alan M. MacDonald: Lyell Centre
Bridget R. Scanlon: University of Texas at Austin
D. O. Valerie Kotchoni: Université d’Abomey-Calavi, Institut Nationale de l’Eau, Chaire Internationale de Physique Mathématique et Applications, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
Jean-Michel Vouillamoz: Centre Nationale de la Recherche Scientifique, Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement
Fabrice M. A. Lawson: Université d’Abomey-Calavi, Institut Nationale de l’Eau, Chaire Internationale de Physique Mathématique et Applications, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
Philippe Armand Adjomayi: Direction Générale de l’Eau
Japhet Kashaigili: Sokoine University of Agriculture
David Seddon: University College London
James P. R. Sorensen: Maclean Building
Girma Yimer Ebrahim: International Water Management Institute
Michael Owor: Makerere University
Philip M. Nyenje: Makerere University
Yahaya Nazoumou: Université Abdou Moumouni
Ibrahim Goni: University of Maiduguri
Boukari Issoufou Ousmane: Université Abdou Moumouni
Tenant Sibanda: Cemex
Matthew J. Ascott: Maclean Building
David M. J. Macdonald: Maclean Building
William Agyekum: Water Research Institute
Youssouf Koussoubé: Université Ouaga I Pr Joseph Ki-Zerbo
Heike Wanke: University of Namibia
Hyungjun Kim: The University of Tokyo
Yoshihide Wada: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Min-Hui Lo: National Taiwan University
Taikan Oki: The University of Tokyo
Neno Kukuric: International Groundwater Resources Assessment Centre

Nature, 2019, vol. 572, issue 7768, 230-234

Abstract: Abstract Groundwater in sub-Saharan Africa supports livelihoods and poverty alleviation1,2, maintains vital ecosystems, and strongly influences terrestrial water and energy budgets3. Yet the hydrological processes that govern groundwater recharge and sustainability—and their sensitivity to climatic variability—are poorly constrained4,5. Given the absence of firm observational constraints, it remains to be seen whether model-based projections of decreased water resources in dry parts of the region4 are justified. Here we show, through analysis of multidecadal groundwater hydrographs across sub-Saharan Africa, that levels of aridity dictate the predominant recharge processes, whereas local hydrogeology influences the type and sensitivity of precipitation–recharge relationships. Recharge in some humid locations varies by as little as five per cent (by coefficient of variation) across a wide range of annual precipitation values. Other regions, by contrast, show roughly linear precipitation–recharge relationships, with precipitation thresholds (of roughly ten millimetres or less per day) governing the initiation of recharge. These thresholds tend to rise as aridity increases, and recharge in drylands is more episodic and increasingly dominated by focused recharge through losses from ephemeral overland flows. Extreme annual recharge is commonly associated with intense rainfall and flooding events, themselves often driven by large-scale climate controls. Intense precipitation, even during years of lower overall precipitation, produces some of the largest years of recharge in some dry subtropical locations. Our results therefore challenge the ‘high certainty’ consensus regarding decreasing water resources4 in such regions of sub-Saharan Africa. The potential resilience of groundwater to climate variability in many areas that is revealed by these precipitation–recharge relationships is essential for informing reliable predictions of climate-change impacts and adaptation strategies.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

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