Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods

Günter Blöschl (), Julia Hall, Alberto Viglione, Rui A. P. Perdigão, Juraj Parajka, Bruno Merz, David Lun, Berit Arheimer, Giuseppe T. Aronica, Ardian Bilibashi, Miloň Boháč, Ognjen Bonacci, Marco Borga, Ivan Čanjevac, Attilio Castellarin, Giovanni B. Chirico, Pierluigi Claps, Natalia Frolova, Daniele Ganora, Liudmyla Gorbachova, Ali Gül, Jamie Hannaford, Shaun Harrigan, Maria Kireeva, Andrea Kiss, Thomas R. Kjeldsen, Silvia Kohnová, Jarkko J. Koskela, Ondrej Ledvinka, Neil Macdonald, Maria Mavrova-Guirguinova, Luis Mediero, Ralf Merz, Peter Molnar, Alberto Montanari, Conor Murphy, Marzena Osuch, Valeryia Ovcharuk, Ivan Radevski, José L. Salinas, Eric Sauquet, Mojca Šraj, Jan Szolgay, Elena Volpi, Donna Wilson, Klodian Zaimi and Nenad Živković
Additional contact information
Günter Blöschl: Technische Universität Wien
Julia Hall: Technische Universität Wien
Alberto Viglione: Technische Universität Wien
Rui A. P. Perdigão: Technische Universität Wien
Juraj Parajka: Technische Universität Wien
Bruno Merz: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
David Lun: Technische Universität Wien
Berit Arheimer: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
Giuseppe T. Aronica: University of Messina
Ardian Bilibashi: CSE – Control Systems Engineer, Renewable Energy Systems & Technology
Miloň Boháč: Czech Hydrometeorological Institute
Ognjen Bonacci: Split University
Marco Borga: University of Padova
Ivan Čanjevac: University of Zagreb
Attilio Castellarin: Università di Bologna
Giovanni B. Chirico: University of Naples Federico II
Pierluigi Claps: Land and Infrastructure Engineering (DIATI), Politecnico di Torino
Natalia Frolova: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Daniele Ganora: Land and Infrastructure Engineering (DIATI), Politecnico di Torino
Liudmyla Gorbachova: Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute
Ali Gül: Dokuz Eylul University
Jamie Hannaford: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Shaun Harrigan: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Maria Kireeva: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Andrea Kiss: Technische Universität Wien
Thomas R. Kjeldsen: University of Bath
Silvia Kohnová: Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava
Jarkko J. Koskela: Finnish Environment Institute
Ondrej Ledvinka: Czech Hydrometeorological Institute
Neil Macdonald: University of Liverpool
Maria Mavrova-Guirguinova: University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy
Luis Mediero: Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Ralf Merz: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UfZ)
Peter Molnar: Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich
Alberto Montanari: Università di Bologna
Conor Murphy: Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University
Marzena Osuch: Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences
Valeryia Ovcharuk: Odessa State Environmental University
Ivan Radevski: Ss. Cyril and Methodius University
José L. Salinas: Technische Universität Wien
Eric Sauquet: Irstea, UR RiverLy
Mojca Šraj: University of Ljubljana
Jan Szolgay: Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava
Elena Volpi: University Roma Tre
Donna Wilson: Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
Klodian Zaimi: Polytechnic University of Tirana
Nenad Živković: University of Belgrade

Nature, 2019, vol. 573, issue 7772, 108-111

Abstract: Abstract Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results—arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far—suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.

Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6

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