Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years

Bernd Wagner (), Hendrik Vogel, Alexander Francke, Tobias Friedrich, Timme Donders, Jack H. Lacey, Melanie J. Leng, Eleonora Regattieri, Laura Sadori, Thomas Wilke, Giovanni Zanchetta, Christian Albrecht, Adele Bertini, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Aleksandra Cvetkoska, Biagio Giaccio, Andon Grazhdani, Torsten Hauffe, Jens Holtvoeth, Sebastien Joannin, Elena Jovanovska, Janna Just, Katerina Kouli, Ilias Kousis, Andreas Koutsodendris, Sebastian Krastel, Markus Lagos, Niklas Leicher, Zlatko Levkov, Katja Lindhorst, Alessia Masi, Martin Melles, Anna M. Mercuri, Sebastien Nomade, Norbert Nowaczyk, Konstantinos Panagiotopoulos, Odile Peyron, Jane M. Reed, Leonardo Sagnotti, Gaia Sinopoli, Björn Stelbrink, Roberto Sulpizio, Axel Timmermann, Slavica Tofilovska, Paola Torri, Friederike Wagner-Cremer, Thomas Wonik and Xiaosen Zhang
Additional contact information
Bernd Wagner: University of Cologne
Hendrik Vogel: University of Bern
Alexander Francke: University of Cologne
Tobias Friedrich: University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
Timme Donders: Utrecht University
Jack H. Lacey: British Geological Survey
Melanie J. Leng: British Geological Survey
Eleonora Regattieri: University of Pisa
Laura Sadori: Università di Roma ‘La Sapienza’
Thomas Wilke: Justus Liebig University Giessen
Giovanni Zanchetta: University of Pisa
Christian Albrecht: Justus Liebig University Giessen
Adele Bertini: Università di Firenze
Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout: Institut de Paléontologie Humaine, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, CNRS UMR 7194
Aleksandra Cvetkoska: Utrecht University
Biagio Giaccio: Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria – CNR
Andon Grazhdani: University of Tirana
Torsten Hauffe: Justus Liebig University Giessen
Jens Holtvoeth: University of Bristol
Sebastien Joannin: Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier, Université de Montpellier, CNRS UMR 5554
Elena Jovanovska: Justus Liebig University Giessen
Janna Just: University of Cologne
Katerina Kouli: National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
Ilias Kousis: Heidelberg University
Andreas Koutsodendris: Heidelberg University
Sebastian Krastel: Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
Markus Lagos: University of Bonn
Niklas Leicher: University of Cologne
Zlatko Levkov: University Ss Cyril and Methodius
Katja Lindhorst: Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
Alessia Masi: Università di Roma ‘La Sapienza’
Martin Melles: University of Cologne
Anna M. Mercuri: Laboratorio di Palinologia e Paleobotanica, Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita, Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia
Sebastien Nomade: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Université Paris-Saclay, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ UMR 8212
Norbert Nowaczyk: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
Konstantinos Panagiotopoulos: University of Cologne
Odile Peyron: Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier, Université de Montpellier, CNRS UMR 5554
Jane M. Reed: University of Hull
Leonardo Sagnotti: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Gaia Sinopoli: Università di Roma ‘La Sapienza’
Björn Stelbrink: Justus Liebig University Giessen
Roberto Sulpizio: Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, University of Bari
Axel Timmermann: Institute for Basic Science
Slavica Tofilovska: University of Bonn
Paola Torri: Laboratorio di Palinologia e Paleobotanica, Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita, Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia
Friederike Wagner-Cremer: Utrecht University
Thomas Wonik: Leibniz Institute for Applied Geophysics (LIAG)
Xiaosen Zhang: Institute of Loess Plateau, Shanxi University

Nature, 2019, vol. 573, issue 7773, 256-260

Abstract: Abstract Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately1 and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial–interglacial cycles2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1529-0

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