A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

Joeri Rogelj (), Daniel Huppmann, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Leon Clarke, Matthew Gidden, Zebedee Nicholls and Malte Meinshausen
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Joeri Rogelj: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Daniel Huppmann: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Volker Krey: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Leon Clarke: University of Maryland
Matthew Gidden: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Zebedee Nicholls: The University of Melbourne
Malte Meinshausen: The University of Melbourne

Nature, 2019, vol. 573, issue 7774, 357-363

Abstract: Abstract To understand how global warming can be kept well below 2 degrees Celsius and even 1.5 degrees Celsius, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. However, current scenarios have a key weakness: they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100. This choice may encourage risky pathways that delay action, reach higher-than-acceptable mid-century warming, and rely on net removal of carbon dioxide thereafter to undo their initial shortfall in reductions of emissions. Here we draw on insights from physical science to propose a scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a specific maximum level with either temperature stabilization or reversal thereafter. The ambition of climate action until carbon neutrality determines peak warming, and can be followed by a variety of long-term states with different sustainability implications. The approach proposed here closely mirrors the intentions of the United Nations Paris Agreement, and makes questions of intergenerational equity into explicit design choices.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1541-4

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