Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests

Wannes Hubau (), Simon L. Lewis, Oliver L. Phillips, Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Hans Beeckman, Aida Cuní-Sanchez, Armandu K. Daniels, Corneille E. N. Ewango, Sophie Fauset, Jacques M. Mukinzi, Douglas Sheil, Bonaventure Sonké, Martin J. P. Sullivan, Terry C. H. Sunderland, Hermann Taedoumg, Sean C. Thomas, Lee J. T. White, Katharine A. Abernethy, Stephen Adu-Bredu, Christian A. Amani, Timothy R. Baker, Lindsay F. Banin, Fidèle Baya, Serge K. Begne, Amy C. Bennett, Fabrice Benedet, Robert Bitariho, Yannick E. Bocko, Pascal Boeckx, Patrick Boundja, Roel J. W. Brienen, Terry Brncic, Eric Chezeaux, George B. Chuyong, Connie J. Clark, Murray Collins, James A. Comiskey, David A. Coomes, Greta C. Dargie, Thales Haulleville, Marie Noel Djuikouo Kamdem, Jean-Louis Doucet, Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Ted R. Feldpausch, Alusine Fofanah, Ernest G. Foli, Martin Gilpin, Emanuel Gloor, Christelle Gonmadje, Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury, Jefferson S. Hall, Alan C. Hamilton, David J. Harris, Terese B. Hart, Mireille B. N. Hockemba, Annette Hladik, Suspense A. Ifo, Kathryn J. Jeffery, Tommaso Jucker, Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu, Elizabeth Kearsley, David Kenfack, Alexander Koch, Miguel E. Leal, Aurora Levesley, Jeremy A. Lindsell, Janvier Lisingo, Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez, Jon C. Lovett, Jean-Remy Makana, Yadvinder Malhi, Andrew R. Marshall, Jim Martin, Emanuel H. Martin, Faustin M. Mbayu, Vincent P. Medjibe, Vianet Mihindou, Edward T. A. Mitchard, Sam Moore, Pantaleo K. T. Munishi, Natacha Nssi Bengone, Lucas Ojo, Fidèle Evouna Ondo, Kelvin S.-H. Peh, Georgia C. Pickavance, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, John R. Poulsen, Lan Qie, Jan Reitsma, Francesco Rovero, Michael D. Swaine, Joey Talbot, James Taplin, David M. Taylor, Duncan W. Thomas, Benjamin Toirambe, John Tshibamba Mukendi, Darlington Tuagben, Peter M. Umunay, Geertje M. F. Heijden, Hans Verbeeck, Jason Vleminckx, Simon Willcock, Hannsjörg Wöll, John T. Woods and Lise Zemagho
Additional contact information
Wannes Hubau: University of Leeds
Simon L. Lewis: University of Leeds
Oliver L. Phillips: University of Leeds
Kofi Affum-Baffoe: Forestry Commission of Ghana
Hans Beeckman: Royal Museum for Central Africa
Aida Cuní-Sanchez: University College London
Armandu K. Daniels: Forestry Development Authority of the Government of Liberia (FDA)
Corneille E. N. Ewango: Wildlife Conservation Society
Sophie Fauset: University of Plymouth
Jacques M. Mukinzi: Wildlife Conservation Society
Douglas Sheil: Norwegian University of Life Sciences
Bonaventure Sonké: University of Yaounde I
Martin J. P. Sullivan: University of Leeds
Terry C. H. Sunderland: Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)
Hermann Taedoumg: University of Yaounde I
Sean C. Thomas: University of Toronto
Lee J. T. White: Ministry of Forests, Seas, Environment and Climate
Katharine A. Abernethy: Institut de Recherche en Écologie Tropicale
Stephen Adu-Bredu: Forestry Research Institute of Ghana (FORIG)
Christian A. Amani: Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)
Timothy R. Baker: University of Leeds
Lindsay F. Banin: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Fidèle Baya: Ministère des Eaux, Forêts, Chasse et Pêche (MEFCP)
Serge K. Begne: University of Leeds
Amy C. Bennett: University of Leeds
Fabrice Benedet: Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD)
Robert Bitariho: Mbarara University of Science and Technology (MUST)
Yannick E. Bocko: Université Marien Ngouabi
Pascal Boeckx: Ghent University
Patrick Boundja: Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)
Roel J. W. Brienen: University of Leeds
Terry Brncic: Wildlife Conservation Society
Eric Chezeaux: Rougier-Gabon
George B. Chuyong: University of Buea
Connie J. Clark: Duke University
Murray Collins: University of Edinburgh
James A. Comiskey: National Park Service
David A. Coomes: University of Cambridge
Greta C. Dargie: University of Leeds
Thales Haulleville: Royal Museum for Central Africa
Marie Noel Djuikouo Kamdem: University of Buea
Jean-Louis Doucet: University of Liège
Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert: University of Leeds
Ted R. Feldpausch: University of Exeter
Alusine Fofanah: The Gola Rainforest National Park
Ernest G. Foli: Forestry Research Institute of Ghana (FORIG)
Martin Gilpin: University of Leeds
Emanuel Gloor: University of Leeds
Christelle Gonmadje: National Herbarium
Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury: Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD)
Jefferson S. Hall: Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Alan C. Hamilton: Chinese Academy of Sciences
David J. Harris: Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
Terese B. Hart: Lukuru Wildlife Research Foundation
Mireille B. N. Hockemba: Wildlife Conservation Society
Annette Hladik: Muséum National d’Histoire Naturel
Suspense A. Ifo: Université Marien Ngouabi
Kathryn J. Jeffery: University of Stirling
Tommaso Jucker: University of Bristol
Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu: Royal Museum for Central Africa
Elizabeth Kearsley: Royal Museum for Central Africa
David Kenfack: Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Alexander Koch: University College London
Miguel E. Leal: Uganda Programme, Wildlife Conservation Society
Aurora Levesley: University of Leeds
Jeremy A. Lindsell: A Rocha International
Janvier Lisingo: Université de Kisangani
Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez: University of Leeds
Jon C. Lovett: University of Leeds
Jean-Remy Makana: Université de Kisangani
Yadvinder Malhi: University of Oxford
Andrew R. Marshall: University of York
Jim Martin: Fleming College
Emanuel H. Martin: Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network
Faustin M. Mbayu: Université de Kisangani
Vincent P. Medjibe: Duke University
Vianet Mihindou: Ministry of Forests, Seas, Environment and Climate
Edward T. A. Mitchard: University of Edinburgh
Sam Moore: University of Oxford
Pantaleo K. T. Munishi: Sokoine University of Agriculture
Natacha Nssi Bengone: Ministry of Forests, Seas, Environment and Climate
Lucas Ojo: University of Abeokuta
Fidèle Evouna Ondo: Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux
Kelvin S.-H. Peh: University of Southampton
Georgia C. Pickavance: University of Leeds
Axel Dalberg Poulsen: Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
John R. Poulsen: Duke University
Lan Qie: University of Leeds
Jan Reitsma: Bureau Waardenburg
Francesco Rovero: University of Florence
Michael D. Swaine: University of Aberdeen
Joey Talbot: University of Leeds
James Taplin: UK Research & Innovation, Innovate UK
David M. Taylor: National University of Singapore
Duncan W. Thomas: Washington State University
Benjamin Toirambe: Royal Museum for Central Africa
John Tshibamba Mukendi: Royal Museum for Central Africa
Darlington Tuagben: Forestry Development Authority of the Government of Liberia (FDA)
Peter M. Umunay: Yale University
Geertje M. F. Heijden: University of Nottingham
Hans Verbeeck: Ghent University
Jason Vleminckx: Florida International University
Simon Willcock: University of Bangor
Hannsjörg Wöll: Independent Researcher
John T. Woods: University of Liberia
Lise Zemagho: University of Yaounde I

Nature, 2020, vol. 579, issue 7797, 80-87

Abstract: Abstract Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions1–3. Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest ‘carbon sink’ will continue for decades4,5. Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53–0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests6. Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth’s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature7–9. Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth’s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass10 reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth’s climate.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2035-0

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