Coupling of Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium

Nerilie J. Abram (), Nicky M. Wright, Bethany Ellis, Bronwyn C. Dixon, Jennifer B. Wurtzel, Matthew H. England, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Belle Philibosian, Sri Yudawati Cahyarini, Tsai-Luen Yu, Chuan-Chou Shen, Hai Cheng, R. Lawrence Edwards and David Heslop
Additional contact information
Nerilie J. Abram: The Australian National University
Nicky M. Wright: The Australian National University
Bethany Ellis: The Australian National University
Bronwyn C. Dixon: The Australian National University
Jennifer B. Wurtzel: The Australian National University
Matthew H. England: University of New South Wales
Caroline C. Ummenhofer: University of New South Wales
Belle Philibosian: United States Geological Survey
Sri Yudawati Cahyarini: Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI)
Tsai-Luen Yu: National Taiwan University
Chuan-Chou Shen: National Taiwan University
Hai Cheng: Xi’an Jiaotong University
R. Lawrence Edwards: University of Minnesota
David Heslop: The Australian National University

Nature, 2020, vol. 579, issue 7799, 385-392

Abstract: Abstract The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects climate and rainfall across the world, and most severely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean1–4. The frequency and intensity of positive IOD events increased during the twentieth century5 and may continue to intensify in a warming world6. However, confidence in predictions of future IOD change is limited by known biases in IOD models7 and the lack of information on natural IOD variability before anthropogenic climate change. Here we use precisely dated and highly resolved coral records from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, where the signature of IOD variability is strong and unambiguous, to produce a semi-continuous reconstruction of IOD variability that covers five centuries of the last millennium. Our reconstruction demonstrates that extreme positive IOD events were rare before 1960. However, the most extreme event on record (1997) is not unprecedented, because at least one event that was approximately 27 to 42 per cent larger occurred naturally during the seventeenth century. We further show that a persistent, tight coupling existed between the variability of the IOD and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation during the last millennium. Indo-Pacific coupling was characterized by weak interannual variability before approximately 1590, which probably altered teleconnection patterns, and by anomalously strong variability during the seventeenth century, which was associated with societal upheaval in tropical Asia. A tendency towards clustering of positive IOD events is evident in our reconstruction, which—together with the identification of extreme IOD variability and persistent tropical Indo-Pacific climate coupling—may have implications for improving seasonal and decadal predictions and managing the climate risks of future IOD variability.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2084-4

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