Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years

Günter Blöschl (), Andrea Kiss, Alberto Viglione, Mariano Barriendos, Oliver Böhm, Rudolf Brázdil, Denis Coeur, Gaston Demarée, Maria Carmen Llasat, Neil Macdonald, Dag Retsö, Lars Roald, Petra Schmocker-Fackel, Inês Amorim, Monika Bělínová, Gerardo Benito, Chiara Bertolin, Dario Camuffo, Daniel Cornel, Radosław Doktor, Líbor Elleder, Silvia Enzi, João Carlos Garcia, Rüdiger Glaser, Julia Hall, Klaus Haslinger, Michael Hofstätter, Jürgen Komma, Danuta Limanówka, David Lun, Andrei Panin, Juraj Parajka, Hrvoje Petrić, Fernando S. Rodrigo, Christian Rohr, Johannes Schönbein, Lothar Schulte, Luís Pedro Silva, Willem H. J. Toonen, Peter Valent, Jürgen Waser and Oliver Wetter
Additional contact information
Günter Blöschl: Vienna University of Technology
Andrea Kiss: Vienna University of Technology
Alberto Viglione: Land and Infrastructure Engineering (DIATI), Politecnico di Torino
Mariano Barriendos: University of Barcelona
Oliver Böhm: University of Augsburg
Rudolf Brázdil: Masaryk University
Denis Coeur: ACTHYS-Diffusion
Gaston Demarée: Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium
Maria Carmen Llasat: University of Barcelona
Neil Macdonald: University of Liverpool
Dag Retsö: Stockholm University
Lars Roald: Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
Petra Schmocker-Fackel: Hydrology Division, Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN)
Inês Amorim: University of Porto
Monika Bělínová: Czech Academy of Sciences
Gerardo Benito: National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC
Chiara Bertolin: Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Dario Camuffo: Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Daniel Cornel: VRVis Research Center for Virtual Reality and Visualization
Radosław Doktor: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute
Líbor Elleder: Czech Hydrometeorological Institute
Silvia Enzi: Kleio Studio Associate Research Company
João Carlos Garcia: University of Porto
Rüdiger Glaser: University of Freiburg
Julia Hall: Vienna University of Technology
Klaus Haslinger: Land and Infrastructure Engineering (DIATI), Politecnico di Torino
Michael Hofstätter: Central Institute of Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG)
Jürgen Komma: Vienna University of Technology
Danuta Limanówka: National Research Institute
David Lun: Vienna University of Technology
Andrei Panin: Russian Academy of Sciences
Juraj Parajka: Vienna University of Technology
Hrvoje Petrić: University of Zagreb
Fernando S. Rodrigo: University of Almería
Christian Rohr: University of Bern
Johannes Schönbein: University of Freiburg
Lothar Schulte: University of Barcelona
Luís Pedro Silva: University of Porto
Willem H. J. Toonen: Utrecht University
Peter Valent: Vienna University of Technology
Jürgen Waser: VRVis Research Center for Virtual Reality and Visualization
Oliver Wetter: University of Bern

Nature, 2020, vol. 583, issue 7817, 560-566

Abstract: Abstract There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitude of river floods in an unprecedented way1. Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe2. However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing datasets and the relatively low number of series, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long-term perspective. Here we analyse how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. We show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the past 500 years, and that this period differs from other flood-rich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine flood-rich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560–1580 (western and central Europe), 1760–1800 (most of Europe), 1840–1870 (western and southern Europe) and 1990–2016 (western and central Europe). In most parts of Europe, previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler-than-usual phases, but the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. Flood seasonality is also more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41 per cent and 42 per cent of central European floods occurred in summer, respectively, compared with 55 per cent of floods in the recent period. The exceptional nature of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based tools for flood-risk assessment that capture the physical mechanisms involved, and management strategies that can incorporate the recent changes in risk.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2478-3

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