Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth

Susan C. Cook-Patton (), Sara M. Leavitt, David Gibbs, Nancy L. Harris, Kristine Lister, Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira, Russell D. Briggs, Robin L. Chazdon, Thomas W. Crowther, Peter W. Ellis, Heather P. Griscom, Valentine Herrmann, Karen D. Holl, Richard A. Houghton, Cecilia Larrosa, Guy Lomax, Richard Lucas, Palle Madsen, Yadvinder Malhi, Alain Paquette, John D. Parker, Keryn Paul, Devin Routh, Stephen Roxburgh, Sassan Saatchi, Johan Hoogen, Wayne S. Walker, Charlotte E. Wheeler, Stephen A. Wood, Liang Xu and Bronson W. Griscom
Additional contact information
Susan C. Cook-Patton: The Nature Conservancy
Sara M. Leavitt: The Nature Conservancy
David Gibbs: World Resources Institute
Nancy L. Harris: World Resources Institute
Kristine Lister: World Resources Institute
Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira: Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute
Russell D. Briggs: State University of New York, College of Environmental Science and Forestry
Robin L. Chazdon: World Resources Institute
Thomas W. Crowther: ETH Zurich
Peter W. Ellis: The Nature Conservancy
Heather P. Griscom: James Madison University
Valentine Herrmann: Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute
Karen D. Holl: University of California Santa Cruz
Richard A. Houghton: Woods Hole Research Center
Cecilia Larrosa: University of Oxford
Guy Lomax: University of Exeter
Richard Lucas: Aberystwyth University
Palle Madsen: InNovaSilva ApS
Yadvinder Malhi: University of Oxford
Alain Paquette: Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal
John D. Parker: Smithsonian Environmental Research Center
Keryn Paul: CSIRO Land and Water
Devin Routh: ETH Zurich
Stephen Roxburgh: CSIRO Land and Water
Sassan Saatchi: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Johan Hoogen: ETH Zurich
Wayne S. Walker: Woods Hole Research Center
Charlotte E. Wheeler: University of Edinburgh
Stephen A. Wood: Yale University
Liang Xu: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Bronson W. Griscom: Conservation International

Nature, 2020, vol. 585, issue 7826, 545-550

Abstract: Abstract To constrain global warming, we must strongly curtail greenhouse gas emissions and capture excess atmospheric carbon dioxide1,2. Regrowing natural forests is a prominent strategy for capturing additional carbon3, but accurate assessments of its potential are limited by uncertainty and variability in carbon accumulation rates2,3. To assess why and where rates differ, here we compile 13,112 georeferenced measurements of carbon accumulation. Climatic factors explain variation in rates better than land-use history, so we combine the field measurements with 66 environmental covariate layers to create a global, one-kilometre-resolution map of potential aboveground carbon accumulation rates for the first 30 years of natural forest regrowth. This map shows over 100-fold variation in rates across the globe, and indicates that default rates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)4,5 may underestimate aboveground carbon accumulation rates by 32 per cent on average and do not capture eight-fold variation within ecozones. Conversely, we conclude that maximum climate mitigation potential from natural forest regrowth is 11 per cent lower than previously reported3 owing to the use of overly high rates for the location of potential new forest. Although our data compilation includes more studies and sites than previous efforts, our results depend on data availability, which is concentrated in ten countries, and data quality, which varies across studies. However, the plots cover most of the environmental conditions across the areas for which we predicted carbon accumulation rates (except for northern Africa and northeast Asia). We therefore provide a robust and globally consistent tool for assessing natural forest regrowth as a climate mitigation strategy.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2686-x

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