A decline in global CFC-11 emissions during 2018−2019

Stephen A. Montzka (), Geoffrey S. Dutton, Robert W. Portmann, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sean Davis, Wuhu Feng, Alistair J. Manning, Eric Ray, Matthew Rigby, Bradley D. Hall, Carolina Siso, J. David Nance, Paul B. Krummel, Jens Mühle, Dickon Young, Simon O’Doherty, Peter K. Salameh, Christina M. Harth, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, James W. Elkins, Helen Walter-Terrinoni and Christina Theodoridi
Additional contact information
Stephen A. Montzka: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Geoffrey S. Dutton: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Robert W. Portmann: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Martyn P. Chipperfield: University of Leeds
Sean Davis: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Wuhu Feng: University of Leeds
Alistair J. Manning: Hadley Centre, Met Office
Eric Ray: University of Colorado
Matthew Rigby: University of Bristol
Bradley D. Hall: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Carolina Siso: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
J. David Nance: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Paul B. Krummel: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Jens Mühle: University of California
Dickon Young: University of Bristol
Simon O’Doherty: University of Bristol
Peter K. Salameh: University of California
Christina M. Harth: University of California
Ronald G. Prinn: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Ray F. Weiss: University of California
James W. Elkins: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Helen Walter-Terrinoni: The Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute
Christina Theodoridi: Natural Resources Defense Council

Nature, 2021, vol. 590, issue 7846, 428-432

Abstract: Abstract The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) has been in decline since the production of ozone-depleting substances was phased out under the Montreal Protocol1,2. Since 2013, the concentration decline of CFC-11 slowed unexpectedly owing to increasing emissions, probably from unreported production, which, if sustained, would delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer1–12. Here we report an accelerated decline in the global mean CFC-11 concentration during 2019 and 2020, derived from atmospheric concentration measurements at remote sites around the world. We find that global CFC-11 emissions decreased by 18 ± 6 gigagrams per year (26 ± 9 per cent; one standard deviation) from 2018 to 2019, to a 2019 value (52 ± 10 gigagrams per year) that is similar to the 2008−2012 mean. The decline in global emissions suggests a substantial decrease in unreported CFC-11 production. If the sharp decline in unexpected global emissions and unreported production is sustained, any associated future ozone depletion is likely to be limited, despite an increase in the CFC-11 bank (the amount of CFC-11 produced, but not yet emitted) by 90 to 725 gigagrams by the beginning of 2020.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03260-5

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