Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Tamsin L. Edwards (), Sophie Nowicki, Ben Marzeion, Regine Hock, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Donald A. Slater, Fiona E. Turner, Christopher J. Smith, Christine M. McKenna, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Jonathan M. Gregory, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Antony J. Payne, Andrew Shepherd, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Torsten Albrecht, Brian Anderson, Xylar Asay-Davis, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Andrew Bliss, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Nicolas Champollion, Youngmin Choi, Richard Cullather, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Koji Fujita, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Matthias Huss, Philippe Huybrechts, Walter Immerzeel, Thomas Kleiner, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Sébastien Clec’h, Victoria Lee, Gunter R. Leguy, Christopher M. Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Jan-Hendrik Malles, Daniel F. Martin, Fabien Maussion, Mathieu Morlighem, James F. O’Neill, Isabel Nias, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Valentina Radić, Ronja Reese, David R. Rounce, Martin Rückamp, Akiko Sakai, Courtney Shafer, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sarah Shannon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Lev Tarasov, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Breedam, Roderik Wal, Michiel Broeke, Ricarda Winkelmann, Harry Zekollari, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang and Thomas Zwinger
Additional contact information
Tamsin L. Edwards: King’s College London
Sophie Nowicki: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Ben Marzeion: University of Bremen
Regine Hock: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Heiko Goelzer: Utrecht University
Hélène Seroussi: California Institute of Technology
Nicolas C. Jourdain: Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP
Donald A. Slater: University of California San Diego
Fiona E. Turner: King’s College London
Christopher J. Smith: University of Leeds
Christine M. McKenna: University of Leeds
Erika Simon: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Ayako Abe-Ouchi: The University of Tokyo
Jonathan M. Gregory: University of Reading
Eric Larour: California Institute of Technology
William H. Lipscomb: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Antony J. Payne: University of Bristol
Andrew Shepherd: University of Leeds
Cécile Agosta: Université Paris-Saclay
Patrick Alexander: Columbia University
Torsten Albrecht: Member of the Leibniz Association
Brian Anderson: Victoria University of Wellington
Xylar Asay-Davis: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Andy Aschwanden: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Alice Barthel: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Andrew Bliss: Colorado State University
Reinhard Calov: Member of the Leibniz Association
Christopher Chambers: Hokkaido University
Nicolas Champollion: University of Bremen
Youngmin Choi: California Institute of Technology
Richard Cullather: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Joshua Cuzzone: California Institute of Technology
Christophe Dumas: Université Paris-Saclay
Denis Felikson: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Xavier Fettweis: University of Liège
Koji Fujita: Nagoya University
Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi: Australian Antarctic Division
Rupert Gladstone: Arctic Centre, University of Lapland
Nicholas R. Golledge: Victoria University of Wellington
Ralf Greve: Hokkaido University
Tore Hattermann: Norwegian Polar Institute
Matthew J. Hoffman: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Angelika Humbert: Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Matthias Huss: Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich
Philippe Huybrechts: Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Walter Immerzeel: Utrecht University
Thomas Kleiner: Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Philip Kraaijenbrink: Utrecht University
Sébastien Clec’h: Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Victoria Lee: University of Bristol
Gunter R. Leguy: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Christopher M. Little: Atmospheric and Environmental Research
Daniel P. Lowry: GNS Science
Jan-Hendrik Malles: University of Bremen
Daniel F. Martin: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Fabien Maussion: University of Innsbruck
Mathieu Morlighem: University of California Irvine
James F. O’Neill: King’s College London
Isabel Nias: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Frank Pattyn: Université Libre de Bruxelles
Tyler Pelle: University of California Irvine
Stephen F. Price: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Aurélien Quiquet: Université Paris-Saclay
Valentina Radić: University of British Columbia
Ronja Reese: Member of the Leibniz Association
David R. Rounce: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Martin Rückamp: Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Akiko Sakai: Nagoya University
Courtney Shafer: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel: California Institute of Technology
Sarah Shannon: University of Bristol
Robin S. Smith: University of Reading
Fiammetta Straneo: University of California San Diego
Sainan Sun: Université Libre de Bruxelles
Lev Tarasov: Memorial University of Newfoundland
Luke D. Trusel: Pennsylvania State University
Jonas Breedam: Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Roderik Wal: Utrecht University
Michiel Broeke: Utrecht University
Ricarda Winkelmann: Member of the Leibniz Association
Harry Zekollari: Université Libre de Bruxelles
Chen Zhao: University of Tasmania
Tong Zhang: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Thomas Zwinger: CSC-IT Center for Science

Nature, 2021, vol. 593, issue 7857, 74-82

Abstract: Abstract The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2–8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y

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