Unveiling African rainforest composition and vulnerability to global change

Maxime Réjou-Méchain (), Frédéric Mortier, Jean-François Bastin, Guillaume Cornu, Nicolas Barbier, Nicolas Bayol, Fabrice Bénédet, Xavier Bry, Gilles Dauby, Vincent Deblauwe, Jean-Louis Doucet, Charles Doumenge, Adeline Fayolle, Claude Garcia, Jean-Paul Kibambe Lubamba, Jean-Joël Loumeto, Alfred Ngomanda, Pierre Ploton, Bonaventure Sonké, Catherine Trottier, Ruppert Vimal, Olga Yongo, Raphaël Pélissier and Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury
Additional contact information
Maxime Réjou-Méchain: AMAP, Univ. Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, CIRAD, INRAE
Frédéric Mortier: CIRAD, Forêts et Sociétés
Jean-François Bastin: AMAP, Univ. Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, CIRAD, INRAE
Guillaume Cornu: CIRAD, Forêts et Sociétés
Nicolas Barbier: AMAP, Univ. Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, CIRAD, INRAE
Nicolas Bayol: FRM Ingénierie
Fabrice Bénédet: CIRAD, Forêts et Sociétés
Xavier Bry: IMAG, CNRS, Univ. Montpellier
Gilles Dauby: AMAP, Univ. Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, CIRAD, INRAE
Vincent Deblauwe: University of California, Los Angeles
Jean-Louis Doucet: Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liège
Charles Doumenge: CIRAD, Forêts et Sociétés
Adeline Fayolle: Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liège
Claude Garcia: CIRAD, Forêts et Sociétés
Jean-Paul Kibambe Lubamba: Université de Kinshasa
Jean-Joël Loumeto: Université Marien Ngouabi
Alfred Ngomanda: Institut de Recherche en Écologie Tropicale (IRET/CENAREST)
Pierre Ploton: AMAP, Univ. Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, CIRAD, INRAE
Bonaventure Sonké: University of Yaoundé I
Catherine Trottier: IMAG, CNRS, Univ. Montpellier
Ruppert Vimal: GEODE UMR 5602, CNRS, Université Jean-Jaurès
Olga Yongo: Université de Bangui
Raphaël Pélissier: AMAP, Univ. Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, CIRAD, INRAE
Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury: CIRAD, Forêts et Sociétés

Nature, 2021, vol. 593, issue 7857, 90-94

Abstract: Abstract Africa is forecasted to experience large and rapid climate change1 and population growth2 during the twenty-first century, which threatens the world’s second largest rainforest. Protecting and sustainably managing these African forests requires an increased understanding of their compositional heterogeneity, the environmental drivers of forest composition and their vulnerability to ongoing changes. Here, using a very large dataset of 6 million trees in more than 180,000 field plots, we jointly model the distribution in abundance of the most dominant tree taxa in central Africa, and produce continuous maps of the floristic and functional composition of central African forests. Our results show that the uncertainty in taxon-specific distributions averages out at the community level, and reveal highly deterministic assemblages. We uncover contrasting floristic and functional compositions across climates, soil types and anthropogenic gradients, with functional convergence among types of forest that are floristically dissimilar. Combining these spatial predictions with scenarios of climatic and anthropogenic global change suggests a high vulnerability of the northern and southern forest margins, the Atlantic forests and most forests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where both climate and anthropogenic threats are expected to increase sharply by 2085. These results constitute key quantitative benchmarks for scientists and policymakers to shape transnational conservation and management strategies that aim to provide a sustainable future for central African forests.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03483-6

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