Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Erik Volz (), Swapnil Mishra, Meera Chand, Jeffrey C. Barrett, Robert Johnson, Lily Geidelberg, Wes R. Hinsley, Daniel J. Laydon, Gavin Dabrera, Áine O’Toole, Robert Amato, Manon Ragonnet-Cronin, Ian Harrison, Ben Jackson, Cristina V. Ariani, Olivia Boyd, Nicholas J. Loman, John T. McCrone, Sónia Gonçalves, David Jorgensen, Richard Myers, Verity Hill, David K. Jackson, Katy Gaythorpe, Natalie Groves, John Sillitoe, Dominic P. Kwiatkowski, Seth Flaxman, Oliver Ratmann, Samir Bhatt, Susan Hopkins, Axel Gandy, Andrew Rambaut and Neil M. Ferguson ()
Additional contact information
Erik Volz: Imperial College London
Swapnil Mishra: Imperial College London
Meera Chand: Public Health England
Jeffrey C. Barrett: Wellcome Sanger Institute
Robert Johnson: Imperial College London
Lily Geidelberg: Imperial College London
Wes R. Hinsley: Imperial College London
Daniel J. Laydon: Imperial College London
Gavin Dabrera: Public Health England
Áine O’Toole: University of Edinburgh
Robert Amato: Wellcome Sanger Institute
Manon Ragonnet-Cronin: Imperial College London
Ian Harrison: Public Health England
Ben Jackson: University of Edinburgh
Cristina V. Ariani: Wellcome Sanger Institute
Olivia Boyd: Imperial College London
Nicholas J. Loman: Public Health England
John T. McCrone: University of Edinburgh
Sónia Gonçalves: Wellcome Sanger Institute
David Jorgensen: Imperial College London
Richard Myers: Public Health England
Verity Hill: University of Edinburgh
David K. Jackson: Wellcome Sanger Institute
Katy Gaythorpe: Imperial College London
Natalie Groves: Public Health England
John Sillitoe: Wellcome Sanger Institute
Dominic P. Kwiatkowski: Wellcome Sanger Institute
Seth Flaxman: Imperial College London
Oliver Ratmann: Imperial College London
Samir Bhatt: Imperial College London
Susan Hopkins: Public Health England
Axel Gandy: Imperial College London
Andrew Rambaut: University of Edinburgh
Neil M. Ferguson: Imperial College London

Nature, 2021, vol. 593, issue 7858, 266-269

Abstract: Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, designated variant of concern (VOC) 202012/01 by Public Health England1, was first identified in the UK in late summer to early autumn 20202. Whole-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing for COVID-19 show an extremely rapid expansion of the B.1.1.7 lineage during autumn 2020, suggesting that it has a selective advantage. Here we show that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Analysis of trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers in local areas across England shows that B.1.1.7 has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if it has a different latent period or generation time. The SGTF data indicate a transient shift in the age composition of reported cases, with cases of B.1.1.7 including a larger share of under 20-year-olds than non-VOC cases. We estimated time-varying reproduction numbers for B.1.1.7 and co-circulating lineages using SGTF and genomic data. The best-supported models did not indicate a substantial difference in VOC transmissibility among different age groups, but all analyses agreed that B.1.1.7 has a substantial transmission advantage over other lineages, with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.

Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03470-x Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:nature:v:593:y:2021:i:7858:d:10.1038_s41586-021-03470-x

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03470-x

Access Statistics for this article

Nature is currently edited by Magdalena Skipper

More articles in Nature from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().