A process-based approach to understanding and managing triggered seismicity

Bradford H. Hager (), James Dieterich, Cliff Frohlich, Ruben Juanes, Stefano Mantica, John H. Shaw, Francesca Bottazzi, Federica Caresani, David Castineira, Alberto Cominelli, Marco Meda, Lorenzo Osculati, Stefania Petroselli and Andreas Plesch
Additional contact information
Bradford H. Hager: Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
James Dieterich: University of California, Riverside
Cliff Frohlich: University of Texas at Austin
Ruben Juanes: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Stefano Mantica: and Exploration, Eni
John H. Shaw: Harvard University
Francesca Bottazzi: and Exploration, Eni
Federica Caresani: and Exploration, Eni
David Castineira: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Alberto Cominelli: and Exploration, Eni
Marco Meda: and Exploration, Eni
Lorenzo Osculati: and Exploration, Eni
Stefania Petroselli: and Exploration, Eni
Andreas Plesch: Harvard University

Nature, 2021, vol. 595, issue 7869, 684-689

Abstract: Abstract There is growing concern about seismicity triggered by human activities, whereby small increases in stress bring tectonically loaded faults to failure. Examples of such activities include mining, impoundment of water, stimulation of geothermal fields, extraction of hydrocarbons and water, and the injection of water, CO2 and methane into subsurface reservoirs1. In the absence of sufficient information to understand and control the processes that trigger earthquakes, authorities have set up empirical regulatory monitoring-based frameworks with varying degrees of success2,3. Field experiments in the early 1970s at the Rangely, Colorado (USA) oil field4 suggested that seismicity might be turned on or off by cycling subsurface fluid pressure above or below a threshold. Here we report the development, testing and implementation of a multidisciplinary methodology for managing triggered seismicity using comprehensive and detailed information about the subsurface to calibrate geomechanical and earthquake source physics models. We then validate these models by comparing their predictions to subsequent observations made after calibration. We use our approach in the Val d’Agri oil field in seismically active southern Italy, demonstrating the successful management of triggered seismicity using a process-based method applied to a producing hydrocarbon field. Applying our approach elsewhere could help to manage and mitigate triggered seismicity.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03668-z

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