Vast CO2 release from Australian fires in 2019–2020 constrained by satellite

Ivar R. Velde (), Guido R. Werf, Sander Houweling, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Tobias Borsdorff, Jochen Landgraf, Paul Tol, Tim A. Kempen, Richard Hees, Ruud Hoogeveen, J. Pepijn Veefkind and Ilse Aben
Additional contact information
Ivar R. Velde: SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research
Guido R. Werf: Vrije Universiteit
Sander Houweling: SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research
Joannes D. Maasakkers: SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research
Tobias Borsdorff: SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research
Jochen Landgraf: SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research
Paul Tol: SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research
Tim A. Kempen: SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research
Richard Hees: SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research
Ruud Hoogeveen: SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research
J. Pepijn Veefkind: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Ilse Aben: SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research

Nature, 2021, vol. 597, issue 7876, 366-369

Abstract: Abstract Southeast Australia experienced intensive and geographically extensive wildfires during the 2019–2020 summer season1,2. The fires released substantial amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere3. However, existing emission estimates based on fire inventories are uncertain4, and vary by up to a factor of four for this event. Here we constrain emission estimates with the help of satellite observations of carbon monoxide5, an analytical Bayesian inversion6 and observed ratios between emitted carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide7. We estimate emissions of carbon dioxide to be 715 teragrams (range 517–867) from November 2019 to January 2020. This is more than twice the estimate derived by five different fire inventories8–12, and broadly consistent with estimates based on a bottom-up bootstrap analysis of this fire episode13. Although fires occur regularly in the savannas in northern Australia, the recent episodes were extremely large in scale and intensity, burning unusually large areas of eucalyptus forest in the southeast13. The fires were driven partly by climate change14,15, making better-constrained emission estimates particularly important. This is because the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide may become increasingly dependent on fire-driven climate–carbon feedbacks, as highlighted by this event16.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03712-y

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