Protected areas have a mixed impact on waterbirds, but management helps

Hannah S. Wauchope (), Julia P. G. Jones, Jonas Geldmann, Benno I. Simmons, Tatsuya Amano, Daniel E. Blanco, Richard A. Fuller, Alison Johnston, Tom Langendoen, Taej Mundkur (), Szabolcs Nagy and William J. Sutherland
Additional contact information
Hannah S. Wauchope: University of Cambridge
Julia P. G. Jones: Bangor University
Jonas Geldmann: University of Cambridge
Benno I. Simmons: University of Cambridge
Tatsuya Amano: University of Queensland
Daniel E. Blanco: Wetlands International LAC Argentina Office
Richard A. Fuller: GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen
Alison Johnston: Cornell Lab of Ornithology
Tom Langendoen: Wetlands International
Taej Mundkur: Wetlands International
Szabolcs Nagy: Wetlands International
William J. Sutherland: University of Cambridge

Nature, 2022, vol. 605, issue 7908, 103-107

Abstract: Abstract International policy is focused on increasing the proportion of the Earth’s surface that is protected for nature1,2. Although studies show that protected areas prevent habitat loss3–6, there is a lack of evidence for their effect on species’ populations: existing studies are at local scale or use simple designs that lack appropriate controls7–13. Here we explore how 1,506 protected areas have affected the trajectories of 27,055 waterbird populations across the globe using a robust before–after control–intervention study design, which compares protected and unprotected populations in the years before and after protection. We show that the simpler study designs typically used to assess protected area effectiveness (before–after or control–intervention) incorrectly estimate effects for 37–50% of populations—for instance misclassifying positively impacted populations as negatively impacted, and vice versa. Using our robust study design, we find that protected areas have a mixed impact on waterbirds, with a strong signal that areas managed for waterbirds or their habitat are more likely to benefit populations, and a weak signal that larger areas are more beneficial than smaller ones. Calls to conserve 30% of the Earth’s surface by 2030 are gathering pace14, but we show that protection alone does not guarantee good biodiversity outcomes. As countries gather to agree the new Global Biodiversity Framework, targets must focus on creating and supporting well-managed protected and conserved areas that measurably benefit populations.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04617-0

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