The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Heidi Kreibich (), Anne F. Loon, Kai Schröter, Philip J. Ward, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Nivedita Sairam, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, María Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Thi Nguyen Huynh, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Hong Quan Nguyen, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Günter Blöschl and Giuliano Baldassarre
Additional contact information
Heidi Kreibich: Section Hydrology
Anne F. Loon: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Kai Schröter: Section Hydrology
Philip J. Ward: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Maurizio Mazzoleni: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Nivedita Sairam: Section Hydrology
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu: University of Houston
Svetlana Agafonova: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Amir AghaKouchak: University of California
Hafzullah Aksoy: Istanbul Technical University
Camila Alvarez-Garreton: Center for Climate and Resilience Research
Blanca Aznar: Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua S.A
Laila Balkhi: University of Saskatchewan
Marlies H. Barendrecht: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Sylvain Biancamaria: Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS
Liduin Bos-Burgering: Deltares
Chris Bradley: University of Birmingham
Yus Budiyono: Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology
Wouter Buytaert: Imperial College London
Lucinda Capewell: University of Birmingham
Hayley Carlson: University of Saskatchewan
Yonca Cavus: Beykent University
Anaïs Couasnon: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Gemma Coxon: University of Bristol
Ioannis Daliakopoulos: Hellenic Mediterranean University
Marleen C. Ruiter: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Claire Delus: Université de Lorraine, LOTERR
Mathilde Erfurt: University of Freiburg
Giuseppe Esposito: Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection
Didier François: Université de Lorraine, LOTERR
Frédéric Frappart: Bordeaux Sciences Agro, UMR ISPA
Jim Freer: University of Bristol
Natalia Frolova: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Animesh K. Gain: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Manolis Grillakis: Institute for Mediterranean Studies, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas
Jordi Oriol Grima: Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua S.A
Diego A. Guzmán: Pontificia Bolivariana University, Faculty of Civil Engineering
Laurie S. Huning: University of California
Monica Ionita: Palaeoclimate Dynamics Group
Maxim Kharlamov: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Dao Nguyen Khoi: University of Science
Natalie Kieboom: Environment Agency
Maria Kireeva: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Aristeidis Koutroulis: Technical University of Crete
Waldo Lavado-Casimiro: Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú
Hong-Yi Li: University of Houston
María Carmen LLasat: University of Barcelona
David Macdonald: British Geological Survey
Johanna Mård: Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science
Hannah Mathew-Richards: Environment Agency
Andrew McKenzie: British Geological Survey
Alfonso Mejia: The Pennsylvania State University
Eduardo Mario Mendiondo: University of São Paulo
Marjolein Mens: Deltares
Shifteh Mobini: Trelleborg municipality
Guilherme Samprogna Mohor: University of Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography
Viorica Nagavciuc: Palaeoclimate Dynamics Group
Thanh Ngo-Duc: University of Science and Technology of Hanoi, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology
Thi Nguyen Huynh: Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City
Pham Thi Thao Nhi: University of Science
Olga Petrucci: Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection
Hong Quan Nguyen: Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City
Pere Quintana-Seguí: Ramon Llull University – CSIC
Saman Razavi: University of Saskatchewan
Elena Ridolfi: Sapienza Università di Roma
Jannik Riegel: University of Applied Sciences
Md Shibly Sadik: Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services
Elisa Savelli: Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science
Alexey Sazonov: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Sanjib Sharma: The Pennsylvania State University
Johanna Sörensen: Lund University
Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza: University of São Paulo
Kerstin Stahl: University of Freiburg
Max Steinhausen: Section Hydrology
Michael Stoelzle: University of Freiburg
Wiwiana Szalińska: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute
Qiuhong Tang: Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Fuqiang Tian: Tsinghua University
Tamara Tokarczyk: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute
Carolina Tovar: Royal Botanical Gardens Kew
Thi Van Thu Tran: Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City
Marjolein H. J. Huijgevoort: KWR Water Research Institute
Michelle T. H. Vliet: Utrecht University
Sergiy Vorogushyn: Section Hydrology
Thorsten Wagener: University of Bristol
Yueling Wang: Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Doris E. Wendt: University of Bristol
Elliot Wickham: University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Long Yang: Nanjing University
Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini: Center for Climate and Resilience Research
Günter Blöschl: Technische Universität Wien
Giuliano Baldassarre: Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science

Nature, 2022, vol. 608, issue 7921, 80-86

Abstract: Abstract Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3.

Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5

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