Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change

Chris R. Stokes (), Nerilie J. Abram, Michael J. Bentley, Tamsin L. Edwards, Matthew H. England, Annie Foppert, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Richard S. Jones, Matt A. King, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Brooke Medley, Bertie W. J. Miles, Guy J. G. Paxman, Catherine Ritz, Tina Flierdt and Pippa L. Whitehouse
Additional contact information
Chris R. Stokes: Durham University
Nerilie J. Abram: Australian National University
Michael J. Bentley: Durham University
Tamsin L. Edwards: King’s College London
Matthew H. England: University of New South Wales
Annie Foppert: University of Tasmania
Stewart S. R. Jamieson: Durham University
Richard S. Jones: Monash University
Matt A. King: University of Tasmania
Jan T. M. Lenaerts: University of Colorado Boulder
Brooke Medley: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Bertie W. J. Miles: Durham University
Guy J. G. Paxman: Columbia University
Catherine Ritz: Université Grenoble Alpes
Tina Flierdt: Imperial College London
Pippa L. Whitehouse: Durham University

Nature, 2022, vol. 608, issue 7922, 275-286

Abstract: Abstract The East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (about 52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past warm periods, synthesize current observations of change and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent notable mass loss during past warm periods are losing mass at present but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet over the twenty-first century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high-emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius is satisfied.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04946-0

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