Tropical tree mortality has increased with rising atmospheric water stress

David Bauman (), Claire Fortunel, Guillaume Delhaye, Yadvinder Malhi, Lucas A. Cernusak, Lisa Patrick Bentley, Sami W. Rifai, Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Imma Oliveras Menor, Oliver L. Phillips, Brandon E. McNellis, Matt Bradford, Susan G. W. Laurance, Michael F. Hutchinson, Raymond Dempsey, Paul E. Santos-Andrade, Hugo R. Ninantay-Rivera, Jimmy R. Chambi Paucar and Sean M. McMahon
Additional contact information
David Bauman: Smithsonian Environmental Research Center
Claire Fortunel: Université de Montpellier, CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, IRD
Guillaume Delhaye: University of Oxford
Yadvinder Malhi: University of Oxford
Lucas A. Cernusak: James Cook University
Lisa Patrick Bentley: Sonoma State University
Sami W. Rifai: University of New South Wales
Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez: University of Oxford
Imma Oliveras Menor: University of Oxford
Oliver L. Phillips: University of Leeds
Brandon E. McNellis: Southwest Biological Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey
Matt Bradford: CSIRO Land and Water, Tropical Forest Research Centre
Susan G. W. Laurance: James Cook University
Michael F. Hutchinson: The Australian National University
Raymond Dempsey: James Cook University
Paul E. Santos-Andrade: Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco
Hugo R. Ninantay-Rivera: Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco
Jimmy R. Chambi Paucar: Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco
Sean M. McMahon: Smithsonian Environmental Research Center

Nature, 2022, vol. 608, issue 7923, 528-533

Abstract: Abstract Evidence exists that tree mortality is accelerating in some regions of the tropics1,2, with profound consequences for the future of the tropical carbon sink and the global anthropogenic carbon budget left to limit peak global warming below 2 °C. However, the mechanisms that may be driving such mortality changes and whether particular species are especially vulnerable remain unclear3–8. Here we analyse a 49-year record of tree dynamics from 24 old-growth forest plots encompassing a broad climatic gradient across the Australian moist tropics and find that annual tree mortality risk has, on average, doubled across all plots and species over the last 35 years, indicating a potential halving in life expectancy and carbon residence time. Associated losses in biomass were not offset by gains from growth and recruitment. Plots in less moist local climates presented higher average mortality risk, but local mean climate did not predict the pace of temporal increase in mortality risk. Species varied in the trajectories of their mortality risk, with the highest average risk found nearer to the upper end of the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit niches of species. A long-term increase in vapour pressure deficit was evident across the region, suggesting that thresholds involving atmospheric water stress, driven by global warming, may be a primary cause of increasing tree mortality in moist tropical forests.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04737-7

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