The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic

William Msemburi (), Ariel Karlinsky, Victoria Knutson, Serge Aleshin-Guendel, Somnath Chatterji and Jon Wakefield
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William Msemburi: World Health Organization
Victoria Knutson: University of Washington
Serge Aleshin-Guendel: University of Washington
Somnath Chatterji: World Health Organization
Jon Wakefield: University of Washington

Nature, 2023, vol. 613, issue 7942, 130-137

Abstract: Abstract The World Health Organization has a mandate to compile and disseminate statistics on mortality, and we have been tracking the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic since the beginning of 20201. Reported statistics on COVID-19 mortality are problematic for many countries owing to variations in testing access, differential diagnostic capacity and inconsistent certification of COVID-19 as cause of death. Beyond what is directly attributable to it, the pandemic has caused extensive collateral damage that has led to losses of lives and livelihoods. Here we report a comprehensive and consistent measurement of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by estimating excess deaths, by month, for 2020 and 2021. We predict the pandemic period all-cause deaths in locations lacking complete reported data using an overdispersed Poisson count framework that applies Bayesian inference techniques to quantify uncertainty. We estimate 14.83 million excess deaths globally, 2.74 times more deaths than the 5.42 million reported as due to COVID-19 for the period. There are wide variations in the excess death estimates across the six World Health Organization regions. We describe the data and methods used to generate these estimates and highlight the need for better reporting where gaps persist. We discuss various summary measures, and the hazards of ranking countries’ epidemic responses.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05522-2

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