Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia’s water tower

Qiang Zhang (), Zexi Shen (), Yadu Pokhrel, Daniel Farinotti, Vijay P. Singh, Chong-Yu Xu, Wenhuan Wu and Gang Wang
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Qiang Zhang: Beijing Normal University
Zexi Shen: Beijing Normal University
Yadu Pokhrel: Michigan State University
Daniel Farinotti: ETH Zürich
Vijay P. Singh: Texas A&M University
Chong-Yu Xu: University of Oslo
Wenhuan Wu: Beijing Normal University
Gang Wang: Beijing Normal University

Nature, 2023, vol. 615, issue 7950, 87-93

Abstract: Abstract Water resources sustainability in High Mountain Asia (HMA) surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP)—known as Asia’s water tower—has triggered widespread concerns because HMA protects millions of people against water stress1,2. However, the mechanisms behind the heterogeneous trends observed in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the TP remain poorly understood. Here we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model and satellite observations to attribute about 1 Gt of monthly TWS decline in the southern TP during 2003–2016 to westerlies-carried deficit in precipitation minus evaporation (PME) from the southeast North Atlantic. We further show that HMA blocks the propagation of PME deficit into the central TP, causing a monthly TWS increase by about 0.5 Gt. Furthermore, warming-induced snow and glacial melt as well as drying-induced TWS depletion in HMA weaken the blocking of HMA’s mountains, causing persistent northward expansion of the TP’s TWS deficit since 2009. Future projections under two emissions scenarios verified by satellite observations during 2020–2021 indicate that, by the end of the twenty-first century, up to 84% (for scenario SSP245) and 97% (for scenario SSP585) of the TP could be afflicted by TWS deficits. Our findings indicate a trajectory towards unsustainable water systems in HMA that could exacerbate downstream water stress.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05643-8

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