Optimal nitrogen rate strategy for sustainable rice production in China

Siyuan Cai, Xu Zhao (), Cameron M. Pittelkow, Mingsheng Fan, Xin Zhang and Xiaoyuan Yan ()
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Siyuan Cai: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xu Zhao: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Cameron M. Pittelkow: University of California, Davis
Mingsheng Fan: China Agricultural University
Xin Zhang: University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
Xiaoyuan Yan: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature, 2023, vol. 615, issue 7950, 73-79

Abstract: Abstract Avoiding excessive agricultural nitrogen (N) use without compromising yields has long been a priority for both research and government policy in China1,2. Although numerous rice-related strategies have been proposed3–5, few studies have assessed their impacts on national food self-sufficiency and environmental sustainability and fewer still have considered economic risks faced by millions of smallholders. Here we established an optimal N rate strategy based on maximizing either economic (ON) or ecological (EON) performance using new subregion-specific models. Using an extensive on-farm dataset, we then assessed the risk of yield losses among smallholder farmers and the challenges of implementing the optimal N rate strategy. We find that meeting national rice production targets in 2030 is possible while concurrently reducing nationwide N consumption by 10% (6–16%) and 27% (22–32%), mitigating reactive N (Nr) losses by 7% (3–13%) and 24% (19–28%) and increasing N-use efficiency by 30% (3–57%) and 36% (8–64%) for ON and EON, respectively. This study identifies and targets subregions with disproportionate environmental impacts and proposes N rate strategies to limit national Nr pollution below proposed environmental thresholds, without compromising soil N stocks or economic benefits for smallholders. Thereafter, the preferable N strategy is allocated to each region based on the trade-off between economic risk and environmental benefit. To facilitate the adoption of the annually revised subregional N rate strategy, several recommendations were provided, including a monitoring network, fertilization quotas and smallholder subsidies.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05678-x

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