Increased heat risk in wet climate induced by urban humid heat

Keer Zhang, Chang Cao, Haoran Chu, Lei Zhao, Jiayu Zhao and Xuhui Lee ()
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Keer Zhang: Yale University
Chang Cao: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Haoran Chu: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Lei Zhao: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Jiayu Zhao: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Xuhui Lee: Yale University

Nature, 2023, vol. 617, issue 7962, 738-742

Abstract: Abstract Cities are generally warmer than their adjacent rural land, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island (UHI). Often accompanying the UHI effect is another phenomenon called the urban dry island (UDI), whereby the humidity of urban land is lower than that of the surrounding rural land1–3. The UHI exacerbates heat stress on urban residents4,5, whereas the UDI may instead provide relief because the human body can cope with hot conditions better at lower humidity through perspiration6,7. The relative balance between the UHI and the UDI—as measured by changes in the wet-bulb temperature (Tw)—is a key yet largely unknown determinant of human heat stress in urban climates. Here we show that Tw is reduced in cities in dry and moderately wet climates, where the UDI more than offsets the UHI, but increased in wet climates (summer precipitation of more than 570 millimetres). Our results arise from analysis of urban and rural weather station data across the world and calculations with an urban climate model. In wet climates, the urban daytime Tw is 0.17 ± 0.14 degrees Celsius (mean ± 1 standard deviation) higher than rural Tw in the summer, primarily because of a weaker dynamic mixing in urban air. This Tw increment is small, but because of the high background Tw in wet climates, it is enough to cause two to six extra dangerous heat-stress days per summer for urban residents under current climate conditions. The risk of extreme humid heat is projected to increase in the future, and these urban effects may further amplify the risk.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-05911-1

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