Natural short-lived halogens exert an indirect cooling effect on climate

Alfonso Saiz-Lopez (), Rafael P. Fernandez, Qinyi Li, Carlos A. Cuevas, Xiao Fu, Douglas E. Kinnison, Simone Tilmes, Anoop S. Mahajan, Juan Carlos Gómez Martín, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, Ryan Hossaini, John M. C. Plane, Gunnar Myhre and Jean-François Lamarque
Additional contact information
Alfonso Saiz-Lopez: Institute of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano, CSIC
Rafael P. Fernandez: Institute of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano, CSIC
Qinyi Li: Institute of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano, CSIC
Carlos A. Cuevas: Institute of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano, CSIC
Xiao Fu: Tsinghua University
Douglas E. Kinnison: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Simone Tilmes: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Anoop S. Mahajan: Ministry of Earth Sciences
Juan Carlos Gómez Martín: Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, CSIC
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez: Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre
Ryan Hossaini: Lancaster University
John M. C. Plane: University of Leeds
Gunnar Myhre: CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Jean-François Lamarque: National Center for Atmospheric Research

Nature, 2023, vol. 618, issue 7967, 967-973

Abstract: Abstract Observational evidence shows the ubiquitous presence of ocean-emitted short-lived halogens in the global atmosphere1–3. Natural emissions of these chemical compounds have been anthropogenically amplified since pre-industrial times4–6, while, in addition, anthropogenic short-lived halocarbons are currently being emitted to the atmosphere7,8. Despite their widespread distribution in the atmosphere, the combined impact of these species on Earth’s radiative balance remains unknown. Here we show that short-lived halogens exert a substantial indirect cooling effect at present (−0.13 ± 0.03 watts per square metre) that arises from halogen-mediated radiative perturbations of ozone (−0.24 ± 0.02 watts per square metre), compensated by those from methane (+0.09 ± 0.01 watts per square metre), aerosols (+0.03 ± 0.01 watts per square metre) and stratospheric water vapour (+0.011 ± 0.001 watts per square metre). Importantly, this substantial cooling effect has increased since 1750 by −0.05 ± 0.03 watts per square metre (61 per cent), driven by the anthropogenic amplification of natural halogen emissions, and is projected to change further (18–31 per cent by 2100) depending on climate warming projections and socioeconomic development. We conclude that the indirect radiative effect due to short-lived halogens should now be incorporated into climate models to provide a more realistic natural baseline of Earth’s climate system.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06119-z

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