Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Johan Rockström (), Joyeeta Gupta, Dahe Qin, Steven J. Lade (), Jesse F. Abrams, Lauren S. Andersen, David I. Armstrong McKay, Xuemei Bai, Govindasamy Bala, Stuart E. Bunn, Daniel Ciobanu, Fabrice DeClerck, Kristie Ebi, Lauren Gifford, Christopher Gordon, Syezlin Hasan, Norichika Kanie, Timothy M. Lenton, Sina Loriani, Diana M. Liverman, Awaz Mohamed, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, David Obura, Daniel Ospina, Klaudia Prodani, Crelis Rammelt, Boris Sakschewski, Joeri Scholtens, Ben Stewart-Koster, Thejna Tharammal, Detlef Vuuren, Peter H. Verburg, Ricarda Winkelmann, Caroline Zimm, Elena M. Bennett, Stefan Bringezu, Wendy Broadgate, Pamela A. Green, Lei Huang, Lisa Jacobson, Christopher Ndehedehe, Simona Pedde, Juan Rocha, Marten Scheffer, Lena Schulte-Uebbing, Wim Vries, Cunde Xiao, Chi Xu, Xinwu Xu, Noelia Zafra-Calvo and Xin Zhang
Additional contact information
Johan Rockström: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Joyeeta Gupta: University of Amsterdam
Dahe Qin: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Steven J. Lade: Stockholm University
Jesse F. Abrams: University of Exeter
Lauren S. Andersen: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
David I. Armstrong McKay: Stockholm University
Xuemei Bai: Australian National University
Govindasamy Bala: Indian Institute of Science
Stuart E. Bunn: Griffith University
Fabrice DeClerck: EAT
Kristie Ebi: University of Washington
Lauren Gifford: University of Arizona
Christopher Gordon: University of Ghana
Syezlin Hasan: Griffith University
Norichika Kanie: Keio University
Timothy M. Lenton: University of Exeter
Sina Loriani: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Diana M. Liverman: University of Arizona
Awaz Mohamed: Universität Hamburg
Nebojsa Nakicenovic: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
David Obura: CORDIO East Africa
Daniel Ospina: Future Earth Secretariat
Klaudia Prodani: University of Amsterdam
Crelis Rammelt: University of Amsterdam
Boris Sakschewski: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Joeri Scholtens: University of Amsterdam
Ben Stewart-Koster: Griffith University
Thejna Tharammal: Indian Institute of Science
Detlef Vuuren: Utrecht University
Peter H. Verburg: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
Ricarda Winkelmann: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Caroline Zimm: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Elena M. Bennett: McGill University
Stefan Bringezu: Kassel University
Wendy Broadgate: Future Earth Secretariat
Pamela A. Green: City University of New York
Lei Huang: National Climate Center
Lisa Jacobson: Future Earth Secretariat
Christopher Ndehedehe: Griffith University
Simona Pedde: Future Earth Secretariat
Juan Rocha: Stockholm University
Marten Scheffer: Wageningen University & Research
Lena Schulte-Uebbing: Utrecht University
Wim Vries: Wageningen University & Research
Cunde Xiao: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Chi Xu: Nanjing University
Xinwu Xu: China Meteorological Administration
Noelia Zafra-Calvo: Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country
Xin Zhang: University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science

Nature, 2023, vol. 619, issue 7968, 102-111

Abstract: Abstract The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

Date: 2023
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (24)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06083-8 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:nature:v:619:y:2023:i:7968:d:10.1038_s41586-023-06083-8

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8

Access Statistics for this article

Nature is currently edited by Magdalena Skipper

More articles in Nature from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().