Accelerating the energy transition towards photovoltaic and wind in China

Yijing Wang, Rong Wang (), Katsumasa Tanaka, Philippe Ciais, Josep Penuelas, Yves Balkanski, Jordi Sardans, Didier Hauglustaine, Wang Liu, Xiaofan Xing, Jiarong Li, Siqing Xu, Yuankang Xiong, Ruipu Yang, Junji Cao, Jianmin Chen, Lin Wang, Xu Tang and Renhe Zhang
Additional contact information
Yijing Wang: Fudan University
Rong Wang: Fudan University
Katsumasa Tanaka: Université Paris-Saclay
Philippe Ciais: Université Paris-Saclay
Josep Penuelas: CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB
Yves Balkanski: Université Paris-Saclay
Jordi Sardans: CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB
Didier Hauglustaine: Université Paris-Saclay
Wang Liu: Fudan University
Xiaofan Xing: Fudan University
Jiarong Li: Fudan University
Siqing Xu: Fudan University
Yuankang Xiong: Fudan University
Ruipu Yang: Fudan University
Junji Cao: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jianmin Chen: Fudan University
Lin Wang: Fudan University
Xu Tang: Fudan University
Renhe Zhang: Fudan University

Nature, 2023, vol. 619, issue 7971, 761-767

Abstract: Abstract China’s goal to achieve carbon (C) neutrality by 2060 requires scaling up photovoltaic (PV) and wind power from 1 to 10–15 PWh year−1 (refs. 1–5). Following the historical rates of renewable installation1, a recent high-resolution energy-system model6 and forecasts based on China’s 14th Five-year Energy Development (CFED)7, however, only indicate that the capacity will reach 5–9.5 PWh year−1 by 2060. Here we show that, by individually optimizing the deployment of 3,844 new utility-scale PV and wind power plants coordinated with ultra-high-voltage (UHV) transmission and energy storage and accounting for power-load flexibility and learning dynamics, the capacity of PV and wind power can be increased from 9 PWh year−1 (corresponding to the CFED path) to 15 PWh year−1, accompanied by a reduction in the average abatement cost from US$97 to US$6 per tonne of carbon dioxide (tCO2). To achieve this, annualized investment in PV and wind power should ramp up from US$77 billion in 2020 (current level) to US$127 billion in the 2020s and further to US$426 billion year−1 in the 2050s. The large-scale deployment of PV and wind power increases income for residents in the poorest regions as co-benefits. Our results highlight the importance of upgrading power systems by building energy storage, expanding transmission capacity and adjusting power load at the demand side to reduce the economic cost of deploying PV and wind power to achieve carbon neutrality in China.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06180-8

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