Fennoscandian tree-ring anatomy shows a warmer modern than medieval climate

Jesper Björklund (), Kristina Seftigen, Markus Stoffel, Marina V. Fonti, Sven Kottlow, David C. Frank, Jan Esper, Patrick Fonti, Hugues Goosse, Håkan Grudd, Björn E. Gunnarson, Daniel Nievergelt, Elena Pellizzari, Marco Carrer and Georg von Arx
Additional contact information
Jesper Björklund: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL
Kristina Seftigen: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL
Markus Stoffel: University of Geneva
Marina V. Fonti: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL
Sven Kottlow: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL
David C. Frank: University of Arizona
Jan Esper: Johannes Gutenberg University
Patrick Fonti: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL
Hugues Goosse: Université Catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain)
Håkan Grudd: Abisko Scientific Research Station
Björn E. Gunnarson: Stockholm University
Daniel Nievergelt: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL
Elena Pellizzari: University of Padua
Marco Carrer: University of Padua
Georg von Arx: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL

Nature, 2023, vol. 620, issue 7972, 97-103

Abstract: Abstract Earth system models and various climate proxy sources indicate global warming is unprecedented during at least the Common Era1. However, tree-ring proxies often estimate temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950–1250 ce) that are similar to, or exceed, those recorded for the past century2,3, in contrast to simulation experiments at regional scales4. This not only calls into question the reliability of models and proxies but also contributes to uncertainty in future climate projections5. Here we show that the current climate of the Fennoscandian Peninsula is substantially warmer than that of the medieval period. This highlights the dominant role of anthropogenic forcing in climate warming even at the regional scale, thereby reconciling inconsistencies between reconstructions and model simulations. We used an annually resolved 1,170-year-long tree-ring record that relies exclusively on tracheid anatomical measurements from Pinus sylvestris trees, providing high-fidelity measurements of instrumental temperature variability during the warm season. We therefore call for the construction of more such millennia-long records to further improve our understanding and reduce uncertainties around historical and future climate change at inter-regional and eventually global scales.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06176-4

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