Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C

Neil Saintilan (), Benjamin Horton, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist, Erica L. Ashe, Nicole S. Khan, Mark Schuerch, Chris Perry, Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Nicholas Murray, Kerrylee Rogers, Simon Albert, Jeffrey Kelleway, Timothy A. Shaw, Colin D. Woodroffe, Catherine E. Lovelock, Madeline M. Goddard, Lindsay B. Hutley, Katya Kovalenko, Laura Feher and Glenn Guntenspergen
Additional contact information
Neil Saintilan: Macquarie University
Benjamin Horton: Nanyang Technological University
Torbjörn E. Törnqvist: Tulane University
Erica L. Ashe: Rutgers University
Nicole S. Khan: University of Hong Kong
Mark Schuerch: University of Lincoln
Chris Perry: University of Exeter
Robert E. Kopp: Rutgers University
Gregory G. Garner: Rutgers University
Nicholas Murray: James Cook University
Kerrylee Rogers: University of Wollongong
Simon Albert: The University of Queensland
Jeffrey Kelleway: University of Wollongong
Timothy A. Shaw: Nanyang Technological University
Colin D. Woodroffe: University of Wollongong
Catherine E. Lovelock: The University of Queensland
Madeline M. Goddard: Charles Darwin University
Lindsay B. Hutley: Charles Darwin University
Katya Kovalenko: University of Minnesota–Duluth
Laura Feher: US Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Centre
Glenn Guntenspergen: US Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Research Center

Nature, 2023, vol. 621, issue 7977, 112-119

Abstract: Abstract Several coastal ecosystems—most notably mangroves and tidal marshes—exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon and the trapping of mineral sediment1. The stability of reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked to reef-derived sediment accumulation and the vertical accretion of protective coral reefs2. The persistence of these ecosystems under high rates of RSLR is contested3. Here we show that the probability of vertical adjustment to RSLR inferred from palaeo-stratigraphic observations aligns with contemporary in situ survey measurements. A deficit between tidal marsh and mangrove adjustment and RSLR is likely at 4 mm yr−1 and highly likely at 7 mm yr−1 of RSLR. As rates of RSLR exceed 7 mm yr−1, the probability that reef islands destabilize through increased shoreline erosion and wave over-topping increases. Increased global warming from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C would double the area of mapped tidal marsh exposed to 4 mm yr−1 of RSLR by between 2080 and 2100. With 3 °C of warming, nearly all the world’s mangrove forests and coral reef islands and almost 40% of mapped tidal marshes are estimated to be exposed to RSLR of at least 7 mm yr−1. Meeting the Paris agreement targets would minimize disruption to coastal ecosystems.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06448-z

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