Marine heatwaves are not a dominant driver of change in demersal fishes

Alexa L. Fredston (), William W. L. Cheung, Thomas L. Frölicher, Zoë J. Kitchel, Aurore A. Maureaud, James T. Thorson, Arnaud Auber, Bastien Mérigot, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Maria Lourdes D. Palomares, Laurène Pecuchet, Nancy L. Shackell and Malin L. Pinsky
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Alexa L. Fredston: University of California, Santa Cruz
William W. L. Cheung: University of British Columbia
Thomas L. Frölicher: University of Bern
Zoë J. Kitchel: Rutgers University
Aurore A. Maureaud: Rutgers University
James T. Thorson: Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Arnaud Auber: Institut Français de Recherche pour l’Exploitation de la MER (Ifremer), Unité Halieutique Manche Mer du Nord, Laboratoire Ressources Halieutiques
Bastien Mérigot: Univ Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD
Juliano Palacios-Abrantes: University of British Columbia
Maria Lourdes D. Palomares: University of British Columbia
Laurène Pecuchet: The Arctic University of Norway
Nancy L. Shackell: Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Malin L. Pinsky: Rutgers University

Nature, 2023, vol. 621, issue 7978, 324-329

Abstract: Abstract Marine heatwaves have been linked to negative ecological effects in recent decades1,2. If marine heatwaves regularly induce community reorganization and biomass collapses in fishes, the consequences could be catastrophic for ecosystems, fisheries and human communities3,4. However, the extent to which marine heatwaves have negative impacts on fish biomass or community composition, or even whether their effects can be distinguished from natural and sampling variability, remains unclear. We investigated the effects of 248 sea-bottom heatwaves from 1993 to 2019 on marine fishes by analysing 82,322 hauls (samples) from long-term scientific surveys of continental shelf ecosystems in North America and Europe spanning the subtropics to the Arctic. Here we show that the effects of marine heatwaves on fish biomass were often minimal and could not be distinguished from natural and sampling variability. Furthermore, marine heatwaves were not consistently associated with tropicalization (gain of warm-affiliated species) or deborealization (loss of cold-affiliated species) in these ecosystems. Although steep declines in biomass occasionally occurred after marine heatwaves, these were the exception, not the rule. Against the highly variable backdrop of ocean ecosystems, marine heatwaves have not driven biomass change or community turnover in fish communities that support many of the world’s largest and most productive fisheries.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06449-y

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