Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California

Patrick T. Brown (), Holt Hanley, Ankur Mahesh, Colorado Reed, Scott J. Strenfel, Steven J. Davis, Adam K. Kochanski and Craig B. Clements
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Patrick T. Brown: The Breakthrough Institute
Holt Hanley: San José State University
Ankur Mahesh: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Colorado Reed: University of California, Berkeley
Scott J. Strenfel: Pacific Gas and Electric Company
Steven J. Davis: University of California, Irvine
Adam K. Kochanski: San José State University
Craig B. Clements: San José State University

Nature, 2023, vol. 621, issue 7980, 760-766

Abstract: Abstract California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years1–3, leading to substantial loss of life and property4,5. Some portion of the change in wildfire behaviour is attributable to anthropogenic climate warming, but formally quantifying this contribution is difficult because of numerous confounding factors6,7 and because wildfires are below the grid scale of global climate models. Here we use machine learning to quantify empirical relationships between temperature (as well as the influence of temperature on aridity) and the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth (>10,000 acres) in California and find that the influence of temperature on the risk is primarily mediated through its influence on fuel moisture. We use the uncovered relationships to estimate the changes in extreme daily wildfire growth risk under anthropogenic warming by subjecting historical fires from 2003 to 2020 to differing background climatological temperatures and aridity conditions. We find that the influence of anthropogenic warming on the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth varies appreciably on a fire-by-fire and day-by-day basis, depending on whether or not climate warming pushes conditions over certain thresholds of aridity, such as 1.5 kPa of vapour-pressure deficit and 10% dead fuel moisture. So far, anthropogenic warming has enhanced the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth by 25% (5–95 range of 14–36%), on average, relative to preindustrial conditions. But for some fires, there was approximately no change, and for other fires, the enhancement has been as much as 461%. When historical fires are subjected to a range of projected end-of-century conditions, the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth events increases by 59% (5–95 range of 47–71%) under a low SSP1–2.6 emissions scenario compared with an increase of 172% (5–95 range of 156–188%) under a very high SSP5–8.5 emissions scenario, relative to preindustrial conditions.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06444-3

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