Global evidence of rapid urban growth in flood zones since 1985

Jun Rentschler (), Paolo Avner, Mattia Marconcini, Rui Su, Emanuele Strano, Michalis Vousdoukas and Stephane Hallegatte
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Jun Rentschler: The World Bank
Paolo Avner: The World Bank
Mattia Marconcini: German Aerospace Center (DLR)
Rui Su: The World Bank
Emanuele Strano: MindEarth
Michalis Vousdoukas: University of the Aegean

Nature, 2023, vol. 622, issue 7981, 87-92

Abstract: Abstract Disaster losses are increasing and evidence is mounting that climate change is driving up the probability of extreme natural shocks1–3. Yet it has also proved politically expedient to invoke climate change as an exogenous force that supposedly places disasters beyond the influence of local and national authorities4,5. However, locally determined patterns of urbanization and spatial development are key factors to the exposure and vulnerability of people to climatic shocks6. Using high-resolution annual data, this study shows that, since 1985, human settlements around the world—from villages to megacities—have expanded continuously and rapidly into present-day flood zones. In many regions, growth in the most hazardous flood zones is outpacing growth in non-exposed zones by a large margin, particularly in East Asia, where high-hazard settlements have expanded 60% faster than flood-safe settlements. These results provide systematic evidence of a divergence in the exposure of countries to flood hazards. Instead of adapting their exposure, many countries continue to actively amplify their exposure to increasingly frequent climatic shocks.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06468-9

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