The contribution of wildfire to PM2.5 trends in the USA

Marshall Burke (), Marissa L. Childs, Brandon Cuesta, Minghao Qiu, Jessica Li, Carlos F. Gould, Sam Heft-Neal and Michael Wara
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Marshall Burke: Stanford University
Marissa L. Childs: Harvard University
Brandon Cuesta: Stanford University
Minghao Qiu: Stanford University
Jessica Li: Stanford University
Carlos F. Gould: Stanford University
Sam Heft-Neal: Stanford University
Michael Wara: Stanford University

Nature, 2023, vol. 622, issue 7984, 761-766

Abstract: Abstract Steady improvements in ambient air quality in the USA over the past several decades, in part a result of public policy1,2, have led to public health benefits1–4. However, recent trends in ambient concentrations of particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5), a pollutant regulated under the Clean Air Act1, have stagnated or begun to reverse throughout much of the USA5. Here we use a combination of ground- and satellite-based air pollution data from 2000 to 2022 to quantify the contribution of wildfire smoke to these PM2.5 trends. We find that since at least 2016, wildfire smoke has influenced trends in average annual PM2.5 concentrations in nearly three-quarters of states in the contiguous USA, eroding about 25% of previous multi-decadal progress in reducing PM2.5 concentrations on average in those states, equivalent to 4 years of air quality progress, and more than 50% in many western states. Smoke influence on trends in the number of days with extreme PM2.5 concentrations is detectable by 2011, but the influence can be detected primarily in western and mid-western states. Wildfire-driven increases in ambient PM2.5 concentrations are unregulated under current air pollution law6 and, in the absence of further interventions, we show that the contribution of wildfire to regional and national air quality trends is likely to grow as the climate continues to warm.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06522-6

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