Precipitation regime changes in High Mountain Asia driven by cleaner air

Jie Jiang, Tianjun Zhou (), Yun Qian, Chao Li, Fengfei Song, Hongmei Li, Xiaolong Chen, Wenxia Zhang and Ziming Chen
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Jie Jiang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Tianjun Zhou: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yun Qian: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Chao Li: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Fengfei Song: Ocean University of China
Hongmei Li: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Xiaolong Chen: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Wenxia Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ziming Chen: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Nature, 2023, vol. 623, issue 7987, 544-549

Abstract: Abstract High Mountain Asia (HMA) has experienced a spatial imbalance in water resources in recent decades, partly because of a dipolar pattern of precipitation changes known as South Drying–North Wetting1. These changes can be influenced by both human activities and internal climate variability2,3. Although climate projections indicate a future widespread wetting trend over HMA1,4, the timing and mechanism of the transition from a dipolar to a monopolar pattern remain unknown. Here we demonstrate that the observed dipolar precipitation change in HMA during summer is primarily driven by westerly- and monsoon-associated precipitation patterns. The weakening of the Asian westerly jet, caused by the uneven emission of anthropogenic aerosols, favoured a dipolar precipitation trend from 1951 to 2020. Moreover, the phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation induces an out-of-phase precipitation change between the core region of the South Asian monsoon and southeastern HMA. Under medium- or high-emission scenarios, corresponding to a global warming of 0.6–1.1 °C compared with the present, the dipolar pattern is projected to shift to a monopolar wetting trend in the 2040s. This shift in precipitation patterns is mainly attributed to the intensified jet stream resulting from reduced emissions of anthropogenic aerosols. These findings underscore the importance of considering the impact of aerosol emission reduction in future social planning by policymakers.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06619-y

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