Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Lidong Mo (), Constantin M. Zohner (), Peter B. Reich, Jingjing Liang, Sergio Miguel, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Susanne S. Renner, Johan Hoogen, Arnan Araza, Martin Herold, Leila Mirzagholi, Haozhi Ma, Colin Averill, Oliver L. Phillips, Javier G. P. Gamarra, Iris Hordijk, Devin Routh, Meinrad Abegg, Yves C. Adou Yao, Giorgio Alberti, Angelica M. Almeyda Zambrano, Braulio Vilchez Alvarado, Esteban Alvarez-Dávila, Patricia Alvarez-Loayza, Luciana F. Alves, Iêda Amaral, Christian Ammer, Clara Antón-Fernández, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Luzmila Arroyo, Valerio Avitabile, Gerardo A. Aymard, Timothy R. Baker, Radomir Bałazy, Olaf Banki, Jorcely G. Barroso, Meredith L. Bastian, Jean-Francois Bastin, Luca Birigazzi, Philippe Birnbaum, Robert Bitariho, Pascal Boeckx, Frans Bongers, Olivier Bouriaud, Pedro H. S. Brancalion, Susanne Brandl, Francis Q. Brearley, Roel Brienen, Eben N. Broadbent, Helge Bruelheide, Filippo Bussotti, Roberto Cazzolla Gatti, Ricardo G. César, Goran Cesljar, Robin L. Chazdon, Han Y. H. Chen, Chelsea Chisholm, Hyunkook Cho, Emil Cienciala, Connie Clark, David Clark, Gabriel D. Colletta, David A. Coomes, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, José J. Corral-Rivas, Philip M. Crim, Jonathan R. Cumming, Selvadurai Dayanandan, André L. Gasper, Mathieu Decuyper, Géraldine Derroire, Ben DeVries, Ilija Djordjevic, Jiri Dolezal, Aurélie Dourdain, Nestor Laurier Engone Obiang, Brian J. Enquist, Teresa J. Eyre, Adandé Belarmain Fandohan, Tom M. Fayle, Ted R. Feldpausch, Leandro V. Ferreira, Leena Finér, Markus Fischer, Christine Fletcher, Lorenzo Frizzera, Damiano Gianelle, Henry B. Glick, David J. Harris, Andrew Hector, Andreas Hemp, Geerten Hengeveld, Bruno Hérault, John L. Herbohn, Annika Hillers, Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado, Cang Hui, Thomas Ibanez, Nobuo Imai, Andrzej M. Jagodziński, Bogdan Jaroszewicz, Vivian Kvist Johannsen, Carlos A. Joly, Tommaso Jucker, Ilbin Jung, Viktor Karminov, Kuswata Kartawinata, Elizabeth Kearsley, David Kenfack, Deborah K. Kennard, Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas, Gunnar Keppel, Mohammed Latif Khan, Timothy J. Killeen, Hyun Seok Kim, Kanehiro Kitayama, Michael Köhl, Henn Korjus, Florian Kraxner, Dmitry Kucher, Diana Laarmann, Mait Lang, Huicui Lu, Natalia V. Lukina, Brian S. Maitner, Yadvinder Malhi, Eric Marcon, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon-Junior, Andrew R. Marshall, Emanuel H. Martin, Jorge A. Meave, Omar Melo-Cruz, Casimiro Mendoza, Irina Mendoza-Polo, Stanislaw Miscicki, Cory Merow, Abel Monteagudo Mendoza, Vanessa S. Moreno, Sharif A. Mukul, Philip Mundhenk, María Guadalupe Nava-Miranda, David Neill, Victor J. Neldner, Radovan V. Nevenic, Michael R. Ngugi, Pascal A. Niklaus, Jacek Oleksyn, Petr Ontikov, Edgar Ortiz-Malavasi, Yude Pan, Alain Paquette, Alexander Parada-Gutierrez, Elena I. Parfenova, Minjee Park, Marc Parren, Narayanaswamy Parthasarathy, Pablo L. Peri, Sebastian Pfautsch, Nicolas Picard, Maria Teresa F. Piedade, Daniel Piotto, Nigel C. A. Pitman, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, John R. Poulsen, Hans Pretzsch, Freddy Ramirez Arevalo, Zorayda Restrepo-Correa, Mirco Rodeghiero, Samir G. Rolim, Anand Roopsind, Francesco Rovero, Ervan Rutishauser, Purabi Saikia, Christian Salas-Eljatib, Philippe Saner, Peter Schall, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Dmitry Schepaschenko, Michael Scherer-Lorenzen, Bernhard Schmid, Jochen Schöngart, Eric B. Searle, Vladimír Seben, Josep M. Serra-Diaz, Douglas Sheil, Anatoly Z. Shvidenko, Javier E. Silva-Espejo, Marcos Silveira, James Singh, Plinio Sist, Ferry Slik, Bonaventure Sonké, Alexandre F. Souza, Krzysztof J. Stereńczak, Jens-Christian Svenning, Miroslav Svoboda, Ben Swanepoel, Natalia Targhetta, Nadja Tchebakova, Hans Steege, Raquel Thomas, Elena Tikhonova, Peter M. Umunay, Vladimir A. Usoltsev, Renato Valencia, Fernando Valladares, Fons Plas, Tran Do, Michael E. Nuland, Rodolfo M. Vasquez, Hans Verbeeck, Helder Viana, Alexander C. Vibrans, Simone Vieira, Klaus Gadow, Hua-Feng Wang, James V. Watson, Gijsbert D. A. Werner, Susan K. Wiser, Florian Wittmann, Hannsjoerg Woell, Verginia Wortel, Roderik Zagt, Tomasz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki, Chunyu Zhang, Xiuhai Zhao, Mo Zhou, Zhi-Xin Zhu, Irie C. Zo-Bi, George D. Gann and Thomas W. Crowther ()
Additional contact information
Lidong Mo: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Constantin M. Zohner: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Peter B. Reich: University of Minnesota
Jingjing Liang: Purdue University
Sergio Miguel: University of Lleida
Gert-Jan Nabuurs: Wageningen University & Research
Susanne S. Renner: Washington University
Johan Hoogen: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Arnan Araza: Wageningen University & Research
Martin Herold: Helmholtz GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
Leila Mirzagholi: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Haozhi Ma: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Colin Averill: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Oliver L. Phillips: University of Leeds
Javier G. P. Gamarra: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Iris Hordijk: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Devin Routh: University of Zürich
Meinrad Abegg: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
Yves C. Adou Yao: University Félix Houphouët-Boigny
Giorgio Alberti: University of Udine
Angelica M. Almeyda Zambrano: University of Florida
Braulio Vilchez Alvarado: Tecnológico de Costa Rica TEC
Esteban Alvarez-Dávila: Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia, UNAD
Patricia Alvarez-Loayza: Field Museum of Natural History
Luciana F. Alves: University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Iêda Amaral: National Institute of Amazonian Research
Christian Ammer: University of Göttingen
Clara Antón-Fernández: Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO)
Alejandro Araujo-Murakami: Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado
Luzmila Arroyo: Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado
Valerio Avitabile: European Commission
Gerardo A. Aymard: UNELLEZ-Guanare
Timothy R. Baker: University of Leeds
Radomir Bałazy: Forest Research Institute
Olaf Banki: Naturalis Biodiversity Center
Jorcely G. Barroso: Universidade Federal do Acre
Meredith L. Bastian: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Jean-Francois Bastin: University of Liege
Luca Birigazzi: Forestry Consultant
Philippe Birnbaum: Institut Agronomique néo-Calédonien (IAC)
Robert Bitariho: Mbarara University of Science & Technology
Pascal Boeckx: Ghent University
Frans Bongers: Wageningen University & Research
Olivier Bouriaud: Ștefan cel Mare University of Suceava
Pedro H. S. Brancalion: University of São Paulo
Susanne Brandl: Bavarian State Institute of Forestry
Francis Q. Brearley: Manchester Metropolitan University
Roel Brienen: University of Leeds
Eben N. Broadbent: University of Florida
Helge Bruelheide: Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
Filippo Bussotti: University of Firenze
Roberto Cazzolla Gatti: University of Bologna
Ricardo G. César: University of São Paulo
Goran Cesljar: Institute of Forestry
Robin L. Chazdon: University of Connecticut
Han Y. H. Chen: Lakehead University
Chelsea Chisholm: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Hyunkook Cho: Korea Forest Promotion Institute
Emil Cienciala: IFER - Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research
Connie Clark: Duke University
David Clark: University of Missouri–St. Louis
Gabriel D. Colletta: Universidade Estadual de Campinas
David A. Coomes: University of Cambridge
Fernando Cornejo Valverde: Andes to Amazon Biodiversity Program
José J. Corral-Rivas: Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango
Philip M. Crim: West Virginia University
Jonathan R. Cumming: West Virginia University
Selvadurai Dayanandan: Concordia University
André L. Gasper: Universidade Regional de Blumenau
Mathieu Decuyper: Wageningen University & Research
Géraldine Derroire: Cirad, UMR EcoFoG (AgroParisTech, CNRS, INRAE, Université des Antilles, Université de la Guyane), Campus Agronomique
Ben DeVries: University of Guelph
Ilija Djordjevic: Institute of Forestry
Jiri Dolezal: The Czech Academy of Sciences
Aurélie Dourdain: Cirad, UMR EcoFoG (AgroParisTech, CNRS, INRAE, Université des Antilles, Université de la Guyane), Campus Agronomique
Nestor Laurier Engone Obiang: Herbier National du Gabon (CENAREST)
Brian J. Enquist: University of Arizona
Teresa J. Eyre: Queensland Herbarium and Biodiversity Science
Adandé Belarmain Fandohan: Université Nationale d’Agriculture
Tom M. Fayle: Queen Mary University of London
Ted R. Feldpausch: University of Exeter
Leandro V. Ferreira: Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Coordenação de Ciências da Terra e Ecologia
Leena Finér: Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)
Markus Fischer: University of Bern
Christine Fletcher: Forest Research Institute Malaysia
Lorenzo Frizzera: Fondazione Edmund Mach
Damiano Gianelle: Fondazione Edmund Mach
Henry B. Glick: Glick Designs LLC
David J. Harris: Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
Andrew Hector: University of Oxford
Andreas Hemp: University of Bayreuth
Geerten Hengeveld: Wageningen University & Research
Bruno Hérault: University of Montpellier
John L. Herbohn: University of the Sunshine Coast
Annika Hillers: The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado: Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana
Cang Hui: Stellenbosch University
Thomas Ibanez: AMAP, Univ. Montpellier, CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, IRD
Nobuo Imai: Tokyo University of Agriculture
Andrzej M. Jagodziński: Polish Academy of Sciences
Bogdan Jaroszewicz: University of Warsaw
Vivian Kvist Johannsen: University of Copenhagen
Carlos A. Joly: University of Campinas, UNICAMP
Tommaso Jucker: University of Bristol
Ilbin Jung: Korea Forest Promotion Institute
Viktor Karminov: Mytischi Branch of Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Kuswata Kartawinata: Field Museum of Natural History
Elizabeth Kearsley: Ghent University
David Kenfack: Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Deborah K. Kennard: Colorado Mesa University
Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas: University of Copenhagen
Gunnar Keppel: University of South Australia
Mohammed Latif Khan: Dr. Harisingh Gour Vishwavidyalaya (A Central University)
Timothy J. Killeen: Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado
Hyun Seok Kim: Seoul National University
Kanehiro Kitayama: Kyoto University
Michael Köhl: University of Hamburg
Henn Korjus: Estonian University of Life Sciences
Florian Kraxner: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Dmitry Kucher: Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University)
Diana Laarmann: Estonian University of Life Sciences
Mait Lang: Estonian University of Life Sciences
Huicui Lu: Qingdao Agricultural University
Natalia V. Lukina: Russian Academy of Sciences
Brian S. Maitner: University of Arizona
Yadvinder Malhi: University of Oxford
Eric Marcon: AgroParisTech, UMR-AMAP, Cirad, CNRS, INRA, IRD, Université de Montpellier
Beatriz Schwantes Marimon: Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso
Ben Hur Marimon-Junior: Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso
Andrew R. Marshall: University of the Sunshine Coast
Emanuel H. Martin: College of African Wildlife Management
Jorge A. Meave: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Omar Melo-Cruz: Universidad del Tolima
Casimiro Mendoza: Colegio de Profesionales Forestales de Cochabamba
Irina Mendoza-Polo: Jardín Botánico de Medellín
Stanislaw Miscicki: Warsaw University of Life Sciences
Cory Merow: University of Connecticut
Abel Monteagudo Mendoza: Jardín Botánico de Missouri
Vanessa S. Moreno: University of São Paulo
Sharif A. Mukul: University of the Sunshine Coast
Philip Mundhenk: University of Hamburg
María Guadalupe Nava-Miranda: Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango
David Neill: Universidad Estatal Amazónica
Victor J. Neldner: Queensland Herbarium and Biodiversity Science
Radovan V. Nevenic: Institute of Forestry
Michael R. Ngugi: Queensland Herbarium and Biodiversity Science
Pascal A. Niklaus: University of Zürich
Jacek Oleksyn: Polish Academy of Sciences
Petr Ontikov: Mytischi Branch of Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Edgar Ortiz-Malavasi: Tecnológico de Costa Rica TEC
Yude Pan: USDA Forest Service
Alain Paquette: Université du Québec à Montréal
Alexander Parada-Gutierrez: Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado
Elena I. Parfenova: Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Minjee Park: Purdue University
Marc Parren: Wageningen University & Research
Narayanaswamy Parthasarathy: Pondicherry University
Pablo L. Peri: Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral (UNPA), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET)
Sebastian Pfautsch: Western Sydney University
Nicolas Picard: GIP Ecofor
Maria Teresa F. Piedade: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia
Daniel Piotto: Universidade Federal do Sul da Bahia
Nigel C. A. Pitman: Field Museum of Natural History
Axel Dalberg Poulsen: Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
John R. Poulsen: Global Change Research Institute CAS
Hans Pretzsch: Technical University of Munich
Freddy Ramirez Arevalo: Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana
Zorayda Restrepo-Correa: Fundación Con Vida & Corporación COL-TREE
Mirco Rodeghiero: Fondazione Edmund Mach
Samir G. Rolim: Universidade Federal do Sul da Bahia
Anand Roopsind: Conservation International
Francesco Rovero: University of Florence
Ervan Rutishauser: Info Flora
Purabi Saikia: Central University of Jharkhand
Christian Salas-Eljatib: Universidad de La Frontera
Philippe Saner: Rhino and Forest Fund e.V.
Peter Schall: University of Göttingen
Mart-Jan Schelhaas: Wageningen University & Research
Dmitry Schepaschenko: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Michael Scherer-Lorenzen: University of Freiburg
Bernhard Schmid: University of Zürich
Jochen Schöngart: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia
Eric B. Searle: Université du Québec à Montréal
Vladimír Seben: Forest Research Institute Zvolen
Josep M. Serra-Diaz: Université de Lorraine, AgroParisTech, INRAE, Silva
Douglas Sheil: Wageningen University & Research
Anatoly Z. Shvidenko: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Javier E. Silva-Espejo: Universidad de la Serena
Marcos Silveira: Universidade Federal do Acre
James Singh: Guyana Forestry Commission
Plinio Sist: University of Montpellier
Ferry Slik: Universiti Brunei Darussalam
Bonaventure Sonké: University of Yaoundé I
Alexandre F. Souza: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
Krzysztof J. Stereńczak: Compensation International Progress S. A. Ciprogress Greenlife
Jens-Christian Svenning: Aarhus University
Miroslav Svoboda: Czech University of Life Sciences
Ben Swanepoel: Wildlife Conservation Society
Natalia Targhetta: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia
Nadja Tchebakova: Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Hans Steege: Naturalis Biodiversity Center
Raquel Thomas: Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development (IIC)
Elena Tikhonova: Russian Academy of Sciences
Peter M. Umunay: Yale University
Vladimir A. Usoltsev: Ural State Forest Engineering University
Renato Valencia: Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Fernando Valladares: LINCGlobal, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC
Fons Plas: Wageningen University
Tran Do: Vietnamese Academy of Forest Sciences
Michael E. Nuland: Stanford University
Rodolfo M. Vasquez: Jardín Botánico de Missouri
Hans Verbeeck: Ghent University
Helder Viana: CITAB, UTAD, Quinta de Prados
Alexander C. Vibrans: Universidade Regional de Blumenau
Simone Vieira: University of Campinas, UNICAMP
Klaus Gadow: Stellenbosch University
Hua-Feng Wang: Hainan University
James V. Watson: West Virginia University
Gijsbert D. A. Werner: University of Oxford
Susan K. Wiser: Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research
Florian Wittmann: Karlsruhe Institute for Technology
Hannsjoerg Woell: Independent Researcher
Verginia Wortel: Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname (CELOS)
Roderik Zagt: Tropenbos International
Tomasz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki: Coordination Center for Environmental Projects
Chunyu Zhang: Beijing Forestry University
Xiuhai Zhao: Beijing Forestry University
Mo Zhou: Purdue University
Zhi-Xin Zhu: Hainan University
Irie C. Zo-Bi: National Polytechnic Institute (INP-HB)
George D. Gann: Society for Ecological Restoration (SER)
Thomas W. Crowther: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)

Nature, 2023, vol. 624, issue 7990, 92-101

Abstract: Abstract Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

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