Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk

Yida Sun, Shupeng Zhu, Daoping Wang, Jianping Duan, Hui Lu, Hao Yin, Chang Tan, Lingrui Zhang, Mengzhen Zhao, Wenjia Cai, Yong Wang, Yixin Hu, Shu Tao and Dabo Guan ()
Additional contact information
Yida Sun: Tsinghua University
Shupeng Zhu: Zhejiang University
Daoping Wang: King’s College London
Jianping Duan: Beijing Normal University
Hui Lu: Tsinghua University
Hao Yin: University of Southern California
Chang Tan: Tsinghua University
Lingrui Zhang: University of Waterloo
Mengzhen Zhao: Beijing Institute of Technology
Wenjia Cai: Tsinghua University
Yong Wang: Tsinghua University
Yixin Hu: Southeast University
Shu Tao: Peking University
Dabo Guan: Tsinghua University

Nature, 2024, vol. 627, issue 8005, 797-804

Abstract: Abstract Evidence shows a continuing increase in the frequency and severity of global heatwaves1,2, raising concerns about the future impacts of climate change and the associated socioeconomic costs3,4. Here we develop a disaster footprint analytical framework by integrating climate, epidemiological and hybrid input–output and computable general equilibrium global trade models to estimate the midcentury socioeconomic impacts of heat stress. We consider health costs related to heat exposure, the value of heat-induced labour productivity loss and indirect losses due to economic disruptions cascading through supply chains. Here we show that the global annual incremental gross domestic product loss increases exponentially from 0.03 ± 0.01 (SSP 245)–0.05 ± 0.03 (SSP 585) percentage points during 2030–2040 to 0.05 ± 0.01–0.15 ± 0.04 percentage points during 2050–2060. By 2060, the expected global economic losses reach a total of 0.6–4.6% with losses attributed to health loss (37–45%), labour productivity loss (18–37%) and indirect loss (12–43%) under different shared socioeconomic pathways. Small- and medium-sized developing countries suffer disproportionately from higher health loss in South-Central Africa (2.1 to 4.0 times above global average) and labour productivity loss in West Africa and Southeast Asia (2.0–3.3 times above global average). The supply-chain disruption effects are much more widespread with strong hit to those manufacturing-heavy countries such as China and the USA, leading to soaring economic losses of 2.7 ± 0.7% and 1.8 ± 0.5%, respectively.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07147-z

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