A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease

Michael B. Mahon, Alexandra Sack, O. Alejandro Aleuy, Carly Barbera, Ethan Brown, Heather Buelow, David J. Civitello, Jeremy M. Cohen, Luz A. Wit, Meghan Forstchen, Fletcher W. Halliday, Patrick Heffernan, Sarah A. Knutie, Alexis Korotasz, Joanna G. Larson, Samantha L. Rumschlag, Emily Selland, Alexander Shepack, Nitin Vincent and Jason R. Rohr ()
Additional contact information
Michael B. Mahon: University of Notre Dame
Alexandra Sack: University of Notre Dame
O. Alejandro Aleuy: University of Notre Dame
Carly Barbera: University of Notre Dame
Ethan Brown: University of Notre Dame
Heather Buelow: University of Notre Dame
David J. Civitello: Emory University
Jeremy M. Cohen: Yale University
Luz A. Wit: University of Notre Dame
Meghan Forstchen: University of Notre Dame
Fletcher W. Halliday: Oregon State University
Patrick Heffernan: University of Notre Dame
Sarah A. Knutie: University of Connecticut
Alexis Korotasz: University of Notre Dame
Joanna G. Larson: University of Notre Dame
Samantha L. Rumschlag: University of Notre Dame
Emily Selland: University of Notre Dame
Alexander Shepack: University of Notre Dame
Nitin Vincent: University of Notre Dame
Jason R. Rohr: University of Notre Dame

Nature, 2024, vol. 629, issue 8013, 830-836

Abstract: Abstract Anthropogenic change is contributing to the rise in emerging infectious diseases, which are significantly correlated with socioeconomic, environmental and ecological factors1. Studies have shown that infectious disease risk is modified by changes to biodiversity2–6, climate change7–11, chemical pollution12–14, landscape transformations15–20 and species introductions21. However, it remains unclear which global change drivers most increase disease and under what contexts. Here we amassed a dataset from the literature that contains 2,938 observations of infectious disease responses to global change drivers across 1,497 host–parasite combinations, including plant, animal and human hosts. We found that biodiversity loss, chemical pollution, climate change and introduced species are associated with increases in disease-related end points or harm, whereas urbanization is associated with decreases in disease end points. Natural biodiversity gradients, deforestation and forest fragmentation are comparatively unimportant or idiosyncratic as drivers of disease. Overall, these results are consistent across human and non-human diseases. Nevertheless, context-dependent effects of the global change drivers on disease were found to be common. The findings uncovered by this meta-analysis should help target disease management and surveillance efforts towards global change drivers that increase disease. Specifically, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, managing ecosystem health, and preventing biological invasions and biodiversity loss could help to reduce the burden of plant, animal and human diseases, especially when coupled with improvements to social and economic determinants of health.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07380-6

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