Streamflow seasonality in a snow-dwindling world

Juntai Han, Ziwei Liu, Ross Woods, Tim R. McVicar, Dawen Yang, Taihua Wang, Ying Hou, Yuhan Guo, Changming Li and Yuting Yang ()
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Juntai Han: Tsinghua University
Ziwei Liu: Tsinghua University
Ross Woods: University of Bristol
Tim R. McVicar: CSIRO Environment
Dawen Yang: Tsinghua University
Taihua Wang: Tsinghua University
Ying Hou: Tsinghua University
Yuhan Guo: Tsinghua University
Changming Li: Tsinghua University
Yuting Yang: Tsinghua University

Nature, 2024, vol. 629, issue 8014, 1075-1081

Abstract: Abstract Climate warming induces shifts from snow to rain in cold regions1, altering snowpack dynamics with consequent impacts on streamflow that raise challenges to many aspects of ecosystem services2–4. A straightforward conceptual model states that as the fraction of precipitation falling as snow (snowfall fraction) declines, less solid water is stored over the winter and both snowmelt and streamflow shift earlier in season. Yet the responses of streamflow patterns to shifts in snowfall fraction remain uncertain5–9. Here we show that as snowfall fraction declines, the timing of the centre of streamflow mass may be advanced or delayed. Our results, based on analysis of 1950–2020 streamflow measurements across 3,049 snow-affected catchments over the Northern Hemisphere, show that mean snowfall fraction modulates the seasonal response to reductions in snowfall fraction. Specifically, temporal changes in streamflow timing with declining snowfall fraction reveal a gradient from earlier streamflow in snow-rich catchments to delayed streamflow in less snowy catchments. Furthermore, interannual variability of streamflow timing and seasonal variation increase as snowfall fraction decreases across both space and time. Our findings revise the ‘less snow equals earlier streamflow’ heuristic and instead point towards a complex evolution of seasonal streamflow regimes in a snow-dwindling world.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07299-y

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