Global net climate effects of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen

Cheng Gong (), Hanqin Tian, Hong Liao, Naiqing Pan, Shufen Pan, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Fortunat Joos, Qing Sun, Hao Shi, Nicolas Vuichard, Qing Zhu, Changhui Peng, Federico Maggi, Fiona H. M. Tang and Sönke Zaehle
Additional contact information
Cheng Gong: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Hanqin Tian: Boston College
Hong Liao: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Naiqing Pan: Boston College
Shufen Pan: Boston College
Akihiko Ito: University of Tokyo
Atul K. Jain: University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht: Dalhousie University
Fortunat Joos: University of Bern
Qing Sun: University of Bern
Hao Shi: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Nicolas Vuichard: Université Paris-Saclay
Qing Zhu: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
Changhui Peng: University of Quebec at Montreal
Federico Maggi: The University of Sydney
Fiona H. M. Tang: Monash University
Sönke Zaehle: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry

Nature, 2024, vol. 632, issue 8025, 557-563

Abstract: Abstract Anthropogenic activities have substantially enhanced the loadings of reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the Earth system since pre-industrial times1,2, contributing to widespread eutrophication and air pollution3–6. Increased Nr can also influence global climate through a variety of effects on atmospheric and land processes but the cumulative net climate effect is yet to be unravelled. Here we show that anthropogenic Nr causes a net negative direct radiative forcing of −0.34 [−0.20, −0.50] W m−2 in the year 2019 relative to the year 1850. This net cooling effect is the result of increased aerosol loading, reduced methane lifetime and increased terrestrial carbon sequestration associated with increases in anthropogenic Nr, which are not offset by the warming effects of enhanced atmospheric nitrous oxide and ozone. Future predictions using three representative scenarios show that this cooling effect may be weakened primarily as a result of reduced aerosol loading and increased lifetime of methane, whereas in particular N2O-induced warming will probably continue to increase under all scenarios. Our results indicate that future reductions in anthropogenic Nr to achieve environmental protection goals need to be accompanied by enhanced efforts to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to achieve climate change mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07714-4

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