Observation-constrained projections reveal longer-than-expected dry spells

Irina Y. Petrova (), Diego G. Miralles (), Florent Brient, Markus G. Donat, Seung-Ki Min, Yeon-Hee Kim and Margot Bador
Additional contact information
Irina Y. Petrova: Ghent University
Diego G. Miralles: Ghent University
Florent Brient: Sorbonne Université
Markus G. Donat: Barcelona Supercomputing Centre
Seung-Ki Min: Pohang University of Science and Technology
Yeon-Hee Kim: Pohang University of Science and Technology
Margot Bador: CERFACS/CNRS

Nature, 2024, vol. 633, issue 8030, 594-600

Abstract: Abstract Climate models indicate that dry extremes will be exacerbated in many regions of the world1,2. However, confidence in the magnitude and timing of these projected changes remains low3,4, leaving societies largely unprepared5,6. Here we show that constraining model projections with observations using a newly proposed emergent constraint (EC) reduces the uncertainty in predictions of a core drought indicator, the longest annual dry spell (LAD), by 10–26% globally. Our EC-corrected projections reveal that the increase in LAD will be 42–44% greater, on average, than ‘mid-range’ or ‘high-end’ future forcing scenarios currently indicate. These results imply that by the end of this century, the global mean land-only LAD could be 10 days longer than currently expected. Using two generations of climate models, we further uncover global regions for which historical LAD biases affect the magnitude of projected LAD increases, and we explore the role of land–atmosphere feedbacks therein. Our findings reveal regions with potentially higher- and earlier-than-expected drought risks for societies and ecosystems, and they point to possible mechanisms underlying the biases in the current generation of climate models.

Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07887-y Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:nature:v:633:y:2024:i:8030:d:10.1038_s41586-024-07887-y

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07887-y

Access Statistics for this article

Nature is currently edited by Magdalena Skipper

More articles in Nature from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().